气候变化对川渝水稻产量的潜在影响  

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Sichuan-Chongqing Area

作　　者：杨满山 关凯心 张文梦 蒋超月 刘志娟[1] 杨晓光[1] Man-shan;GUAN Kai-xin;ZHANG Wen-meng;JIANG Chao-yue;LIU Zhi-juan;YANG Xiao-guang(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第10期1146-1159,共14页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：新一代人工智能国家科技重大专项项目(2022ZD0119503)。

摘　　要：以川渝地区双季早稻和晚稻为研究对象,基于历史气象数据(1981-2020年)和水稻产量数据(1997-2020年)构建面板模型,解析未来气候情景下(2021-2060年,SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)平均态和极端态变化对川渝水稻产量的影响。结果表明:(1)2021-2060年川渝大部分地区水稻产量较历史产量增加10.0%~30.0%,四川南部和东南部地区减产0~10.0%。(2)未来气候变化下,平均态(降水量和辐射量)及极端态(高温和干旱)变化使川渝大部分地区水稻产量减产0~2.0%,降水极端态变化使重庆市和达州市水稻减产0~2.0%。温度平均态变化对早、晚稻产量的影响差异较大,降水量和辐射量平均态变化对早、晚稻产量影响基本一致。2021-2060年川渝地区大部分地区的温度、降水量和辐射量呈上升趋势,少部分地区(重庆市、攀枝花市)降水量呈下降趋势。降水量和辐射量平均态、干旱和高温极端态变化导致川渝大部分地区水稻减产,其中辐射量平均态变化和干旱极端态变化分别在未来SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下对水稻减产贡献最大。未来气候变化背景下,应采取措施应对极端干旱和极端高温事件,以保障川渝水稻高产稳产。The cultivation of the double-cropping systems involving early and late rice was investigated within the Sichuan-Chongqing area,and a panel model was constructed based on historical meteorological data(1981-2020)and rice yield data(1997-2020)to analyze the impacts of future climate(2021-2060,SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)on rice yield in study area.The results showed that:(1)from 2021 to 2060,the rice yield in most areas of Sichuan and Chongqing would increase by 10.0%to 30.0%compared with the historical yield,and the southern and southeastern areas of Sichuan would decrease by 0 to 10%.(2)Under future climate change,the change of mean climate(precipitation and radiation)and extreme climate(high temperature and drought)would reduce rice yield by 0 to 2.0%in most areas of Sichuan and Chongqing,and the change of extreme state of precipitation would reduce rice yield by 0 to 2.0%in Chongqing and Dazhou.The impact of temperature on yield of early and late rice was very different.The impact of precipitation and radiation on yield of early and late rice was basically the same.During 2021-2060,the temperature,precipitation and radiation in most areas showed an upward trend,while the precipitation in a few areas(Chongqing and Panzhihua)showed a downward trend.While the change of precipitation and radiation,drought and high temperature led to the decrease of rice production in study area.The mean climate of radiation and the extreme climate of drought contributed most to rice yield under future SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5,respectively.Under future climate change,the high and stable yield of rice should be ensured under extreme drought and high temperature events in Sichuan-Chongqing area.

关 键 词：川渝地区 水稻产量 面板模型 极端气候指标 气候指标 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学] S162.53