中国制造业转移动因分析  

An Analysis of the Motivation of China’s Manufacturing Industry Relocation

作　　者：杨皓森 YANG Haosen(Big Data Development Department,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心大数据发展部,北京100045

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第9期30-37,共8页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家信息中心青年人才基础研究基金课题“基于全球产业大数据的我国制造业外迁态势、影响及应对策略研究”(202312)。

摘　　要：全球产业链分工加速重构,中国产业体系完整性和产业链安全稳定性面临新的挑战。文章通过梳理客观经济发展、配套政策、进出口限制、国际政策等外部环境因素和企业主观生命周期、成本和风险需求等内在发展因素,以期分析中国制造业转移动因。结果显示:中国制造业发展的要素成本相对快速提升,产业转型升级和绿色发展政策逐步细化,以及双循环新发展格局等鼓励制造业企业积极参与国际分工,或导致一批中国制造业企业出于经营成本考量而主动向外转移;美欧日等发达国家对中国制造业出口的高关税、关键零配件进口限制、技术封锁以及高端制造业回流和低端制造业向“近岸”“友岸”转移等,或导致一批中国制造业企业出于经营风险考量而被动向外转移。With the accelerated reconstruction of the global industrial chain,the integrity of China’s industry system,the security and stability of the industrial chain are facing new challenges.This paper sorts out the external environment factors such as economic development,supporting policies,import/export restrictions,and international policies,as well as enterprise internal development factors such as enterprise life cycle,cost and risk demands,aiming to analyze the motivation of China’s manufacturing industry relocation.The result shows that:Some of China’s manufacturing enterprises may actively move out for consideration of the operation cost because of the relatively rapid increase of factor costs,gradual refinement of policies of industrial transformation and upgrading and green development policy,and the new development pattern of dual circulation and the like that encourage manufacturing enterprises to participate in international division of labor;high tariffs on export of China’s manufacturing industry,limitation of import on key parts and spare parts,and technological blockade as well as back-flow of high-end manufacturing industry and relocation of low-end manufacturing industry to“near shore”and“friendly shore”imposed by such developed countries as the United States,Europe and Japan,and the like may lead to the passive relocation of China’s manufacturing enterprises for consideration of operation risks.

关 键 词：制造业 产业转移 跨国并购 绿地投资 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]