让数字技术进场:政策议程设置的多重因果漏斗模型审思  

Introducing Digital Technology into the Arena:A Reflection on the Multiple Causal Funnel Model in Policy Agenda Setting

作　　者：张宇 ZHANG Yu

机构地区：[1]扬州大学政府治理与公共政策研究中心,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《党政研究》2024年第5期52-61,M0004,M0005,共12页Studies on Party and Government

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“公民数字化政策参与平等性的实现路径研究”(22AZZ008)。

摘　　要：公共政策议程设置理论研究对于政策问题建构起到了回溯性阐释与前瞻性行动预测的作用。政策议程设置的多重因果漏斗模型充分考虑了诸多变量在时间轴上的叠加作用以及聚合情况,对当下复杂社会情境的解释力较强。但是,面对全面到来的数字社会,日常生活数字化改变了社会问题形态,数字“棘手问题”造成了高度不确定性,技术价值冲突影响了政策共识。多重因果漏斗中原有的变量在推动政策问题转化时显然乏力,需要让数字技术进场,形成多重因果漏斗的修正模型。进入漏斗的数字技术包括物理介质、人们的使用行为以及该行为产生的社会效用与外部性,在动态发展过程中影响相关政治事件,或直接影响其他因素叠加作用的结果,来触发政策议程设置。修正模型对政策议程分析与未来行动方案的形成都具有较强的工具意义和行动指向。The theoretical study of public policy agenda-setting provides both retrospective interpretations and forward-looking predictions for the construction of policy issues.The multiple causal funnel model,widely used in policy agenda-setting,accounts for the accumulation and interaction of various variables over time,offering strong explanatory power for complex social situations.However,in a fully digitized society,the digitization of daily life has transformed the nature of social problems,introducing"digital wicked problems"that heighten uncertainty and complicate policy consensus due to conflicting technological values.The original variables in the causal funnel model are increasingly inadequate for addressing these evolving policy challenges.Therefore,it is necessary to integrate digital technology into the model,forming a revised multiple causal funnel model.The digital technologies entering the funnel include physical media,user behavior,and the societal impact and externalities of these behaviors,which influence political processes or directly interact with other factors to shape policy agenda-setting.This revised model offers significant instrumental value and practical guidance for both policy analysis and the development of future action plans.

关 键 词：政策议程设置 多重因果漏斗模型 数字技术 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]