房价波动对地方政府债务稳定性的影响——基于隐性担保和支出效率的分析  

The Impact of House Price Fluctuations on Local Government Debt Stability——An Analysis Based on Implicit Guarantees and Expenditure Efficiency

作　　者：王劲松[1] 唐洛秋 黄佳祥 武文慧 韩向宇 Wang Jinsong;Tang Luoqiu;Huang Jiaxiang;Wu Wenhui;Han Xiangyu(School of Economics,Hangzhou Normal University;School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Bank of Nanjing Co.,ltd,Branch of Hangzhou Future Sci-tech City)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济学院,浙江杭州311121 [2]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [3]南京银行杭州未来科技城支行,浙江杭州311121

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第6期60-77,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(18AJY029)的资助。

摘　　要：地方政府债务风险是当前我国重大金融风险之一,防范化解地方政府债务风险,是实现高质量发展和中国式现代化的必然要求。本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型,并将隐性担保纳入模型,在地方政府不同支出效率下,量化研究房价波动对地方债务稳定性的影响。本文发现,土地财政是房价波动影响地方政府债务稳定性的关键体制性因素;隐性担保和地方政府支出低效,均会加剧房价波动对地方政府债务稳定性的影响;政府支出效率提高,能显著削弱“房价—地方债”反馈机制。为维护地方政府债务稳定,必须遏制地方政府土地融资行为和对国有企业隐性担保,并切实提高地方政府支出效率。Over the past two decades,the real estate market has emerged as a pivotal industry in China's economy,with housing prices continuously escalating due to rapid market development and fervent investment activities.This positive feedback loop,wherein housing and land prices mutually reinforce each other,has led to increased land grant revenues for local governments.Concurrently,local governments'financing through land sales has also surged,resulting in a burgeoning scale of local government debt.Recently,however,multiple pressures such as demand contraction,supply shocks,and weakened expectations have induced a downward trend in housing prices,thereby diminishing land grant revenues and local governments'debt-paying capacities.This has compounded the challenge of managing the substantial stock of local government debt accrued during the real estate boom.The interconnected mechanisms of housing price fluctuations,local government debt,and systemic financial risk,exacerbated by the implicit guarantees extended by local governments to state-owned enterprises and inefficiencies in government spending,have further complicated the local debt problem.If not addressed promptly,this issue could pose a significant threat to macro-financial stability.Against this backdrop,two pertinent questions warrant in-depth examination:how will the debt stability of local governments be affected by continued fluctuations in housing prices?And what roles do implicit guarantees and government spending efficiency play in this context?To explore these questions,this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model encompassing representative households,heterogeneous firms,local governments,commercial banks,and other sectors,building upon the frameworks of Iacoviello and Neri(2010)and Liu,Wang,and Zha(2013).The model incorporates realistic factors such as land finance,local governments'implicit guarantees to state-owned enterprises,and expenditure inefficiencies,providing a theoretical framework for analyzing the transmissi

关 键 词：房价波动 地方政府债务稳定性 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F299.23