考虑淹没区域危险度的溃坝洪灾避难场所选址评价  

Evaluation on Site Selection of Shelters for Dam Failure Floods Considering the Risk Degree of Inundation Area

作　　者：李宗坤[1] 张开楷 葛巍[1,2] 朱俊宇 焦余铁 张亚东 LI Zongkun;ZHANG Kaikai;GE Wei;ZHU Junyu;JIAO Yutie;ZHANG Yadong(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2024年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079127,52179144);中国博士后科学基金项目(2023M731259);河南省自然科学基金优秀青年基金项目(232300421067);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划(22HASTIT011)。

摘　　要：针对溃坝洪灾避难场所选址中对潜在淹没区域危险程度重视不足的问题,提出了一种新的溃坝洪灾避难场所选址评价模型。首先,在构建危险度评价指标体系的基础上,运用改进突变评价法对潜在淹没区域进行危险度评价和危险等级划分;其次,将避难场所与高级别危险区的距离作为选址评价指标,并考虑避难场所的灾害风险、位置规模、应急保障等条件,通过层次分析法确定权重,运用TOPSIS法对避难场所进行选址评价;最后,以我国陆浑水库下游13个潜在淹没区域和10个备选避难场所为例进行验证。结果表明:危险等级较高的潜在淹没区域中,白元镇为Ⅰ级危险区,彭婆镇、鸣皋镇、城关街道、龙门镇为Ⅱ级危险区,评价较优的备选避难场所能够满足重视高危险度潜在淹没区域的要求。In response to the problem of insufficient attention to the risk degree of potential inundation areas in the siting of shelters for dam failure floods,a new model for evaluating the sites of shelters was proposed.On the basis of establishing the risk evaluation index system,the improved catastrophe theory evaluation method was used to evaluate the risk degree and classify the risk level of the potential inundation areas.The distance between shelters and high-risk level areas was taken as the site selection evaluation index,and the disaster risk,location scale,emergency support of shelters were considered.The weights were determined by AHP method,and the TOPSIS method was applied to evaluate the sites of shelters.Finally,13 potential inundation areas and 10 alternative shelters downstream of Luhun Reservoir in China were used as examples for validation.The results showed that among the areas with high risk levels,Baiyuan Township was a ClassⅠhazardous area,and Pengpo Township,Minggao Township,Chengguan Street,and Longmen Township were ClassⅡhazardous areas.The better evaluated shelters could meet the requirements of paying attention to areas with high risk degree.

关 键 词：溃坝洪水 避难场所 危险度 选址 TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：TV122.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]