基于SIRS模型的核电事故致因传播机制研究  

Research on the Causal Propagation Mechanism of Nuclear Power Accidents Based on SIRS Model

作　　者：戴立操[1] 梁紫怡 张美慧 DAI Licao;LIANG Ziyi;ZHANG Meihui(University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学人因研究所,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《南华大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期1-8,共8页Journal of University of South China(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：文章用自然语言处理技术对152起核电厂执照运行事件报告(Licensed Operation Event Report,LOER)进行风险致因分析,得出风险致因复杂网络的相关数据,借助改进SIR传染病模型,结合核电运行事件风险传播的特征,构建了适用于核电领域的改进传播模型。文章对核电运行事件致因传播过程进行动态仿真,对比了不同因素对传播风险的影响差异,对当前的核电安全管理工作进行优化。In this study,152 Licensed Operation Event Reports(LOER)of nuclear power plants were first analyzed for risk causation through natural language processing technology,and the relevant data of the complex network of risk causes were obtained.Then with the help of the improved SIR infectious disease model,it is combined with the characterization of the risk propagation of nuclear power operational events.An improved propagation model applicable to the nuclear power sector is constructed.Dynamic simulation of the causal propagation process of nuclear power operation events compares the differences in the impact of different factors on the propagation risk to optimize the current management efforts.

关 键 词：核电运行事件报告 风险传染 传染病模型 传播动力学 

分 类 号：TM623[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]