气候变化对普氏原羚适生区空间偏移的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Suitable Habitat for Przewalski's Gazelle

作　　者：汉瑞英 常江 赵志平[1] 黄宇欣 HAN Ruiying;CHANG Jiang;ZHAO Zhiping;HUANG Yuxin(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第10期2260-2268,共9页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(No.2019QZKK0501)。

摘　　要：普氏原羚(Procapra przewalskii)是青藏高原特有濒危物种,仅分布在青海湖周边区域,其生境动态变化对高原生态系统稳定性具有重要指示作用。研究气候变化对普氏原羚适生区及生境偏移的影响对于保护区域物种多样性、维持生态系统功能完整性具有重要意义。本研究基于青海湖周边区域(共和县、海晏县、刚察县、天峻县、乌兰县和湟源县)野外调查和文献检索的物种分布记录(共计194个分布点位),选取适宜普氏原羚生境特征的环境变量构建最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,分析普氏原羚的适宜生境、识别栖息地斑块之间物种扩散的重要潜在路径,并结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP6)中的4种共享社会经济路径(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585)预测未来中期(2041-2060年)、远期(2061-2080年)普氏原羚的适宜分布区域,探求普氏原羚对气候变化响应的空间格局。结果表明:①MaxEnt模型预测普氏原羚适生分布区精度达到较高水平,模型ROC曲线下面积AUC均值达0.984。②当前气候条件下,研究区普氏原羚高适生区面积为1997.8 km^(2),占研究区总面积的2.85%,主要分布在青海湖东北区域、天峻县与乌兰县交界区域以及共和县西南区域。这3个区域之间存在较大的地理距离,基于生态廊道分析,青海湖东北区域通往共和县西南区域的生态廊道数量较多,普氏原羚迁徙较容易。③与当前气候条件相比,2041-2060年,在SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585四种温室气体排放情景下,普氏原羚适生面积缩小,高适生区域质心向西偏移;2061-2080年,高适生区域质心向北(高纬度)偏移,普氏原羚适生面积缩小明显。研究显示,伴随着气候的变化,普氏原羚适宜生境面积出现不同程度的减小趋势,需采取适应气候变化的预警保护措施。The Przewalski′s gazelle(Procapra przewalskii)is an endangered species endemic to the Qinghai Lake region of the Tibetan Plateau,and its distribution dynamics indicate the stability of the plateau ecosystem.Studying the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Przewalski′s gazelle is of great significance for the conservation of species diversity and the maintenance of ecosystem integrity.In this study,we selected environmental variables reflecting the gazelle′s habitat characteristics to construct a MaxEnt model based distribution records from field surveys and literature(there are a total of distribution points),analyzed the suitable habitat of the gazelle,identified important population dispersal corridors between habitat patches,predicted the suitable distribution areas of the gazelle for the mid-term(2041-2060)and long-term(2061-2080)under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),and explored the spatial distribution pattern of the Przewalski′s gazelle in response to climate change.The results showed that:(1)The MaxEnt model had a high level of accuracy in predicting the suitable distribution area of the Przewalski′s gazelle,with a mean AUC value of 0.984 for the ROC curve of the model.(2)Under current climatic conditions,the high-level suitable habitat area for the gazelle in the study area is 1997.8 km^(2),accounting for 2.85% of the study area.The Przewalski′s gazelle mainly distributed in the northeastern area of Qinghai Lake,the border area of Tianjun and Wulan counties,and the southwestern area of Gonghe County,with considerable geographical distances between these three areas.Based on the analysis of ecological corridors,there were more ecological corridors from the northeastern area of Qinghai Lake to the southwestern area of Gonghe County,making population dispersal relatively easy.(3)Under the four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios,the suitable habitat area for the Prze

关 键 词：青海湖周边区域 普氏原羚 气候变化 高适生区 

分 类 号：X176[环境科学与工程—环境科学]