考虑出行偏好的城市群交通方式选择行为影响因素研究  

Research on influencing factors of transportation mode selection behavior in urban agglomerations considering travel preferences

作　　者：王建军[1,2] 李景涛 张宇辉 龙雪琴[1,2] WANG Jianjun;LI Jingtao;ZHANG Yuhui;LONG Xueqin(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi’an 710064,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management,Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area,Chang'an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]长安大学生态安全屏障区交通网设施管控及循环修复技术交通运输行业重点实验室,西安710064

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2024年第4期22-31,共10页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52172338);陕西省交通运输厅科研项目(23-38R)。

摘　　要：针对城市群旅客出行方式选择行为影响机理不够明晰的问题,开展旅客城市群交通方式选择行为影响因素研究.设计问卷对关中城市群内出行行为进显性偏好(Revealed Preference,RP)调查,并对调查数据的效度、信度进行检验,基于调查所得出行数据,采用梯度提升决策树(Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,GBDT)模型构建了考虑出行偏好的出行方式选择预测模型,并采用可解释机器学习框架SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)模型对预测结果进行解析,所构建模型结合旅客实际决策逻辑将出行方式多元选择行为解构为多次二元选择行为,以增强模型的可解释性.研究结果表明:所构建考虑出行偏好的GBDT预测模型能有效预测旅客城市群出行方式选择行为;私家车与公共交通之间的二元选择行为,会受到小汽车拥有状况,旅客对方便性、安全性、快捷性、舒适性的偏好程度、家庭居住区位、出行距离的显著影响;高速巴士与铁路系统、普通铁路与高铁动车之间的二元选择行为,均会受到出行距离、旅客对舒适性、安全性、快捷性、准时性的偏好程度的显著影响;小汽车拥有状况、家庭居住区位会显著影响高速巴士与铁路系统的选择行为,收入状况会显著影响普通铁路与高铁动车的选择行为.研究成果可为决策者从旅客出行偏好的角度进行更加切实有效的决策提供参考.This study investigates the factors influencing passenger mode choice behavior in urban agglomerations,addressing the unclear mechanisms of such behavior.A Revealed Preference(RP) survey is conducted on travel behavior within the Guanzhong urban agglomeration using a questionnaire,and the data's validity and reliability are tested.A travel mode selection prediction model considering travel preferences is constructed using the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT) model,based on the survey data.The interpretable machine learning framework,SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP),is employed to analyze the prediction results.The constructed model considers actual passenger decision-making logic,deconstructing multiple travel mode choices into multiple binary choices to enhance model interpretability.The results indicate that the GBDT prediction model considering travel preferences effectively predicts travel mode choice behavior in urban agglomerations.Passenger preferences for convenience,safety,speed and comfort,as well as car ownership home location and travel distance,significantly influence the binary choice behavior between private cars and public transportation.The choices between high-speed buses and railway systems,as well as between ordinary railways and high-speed trains,are significantly influenced by travel distance and passenger preferences for comfort,safety,speed,and punctuality.Car ownership and household location significantly affect the choice between high-speed buses and railway systems,while income status significantly influences the choice between ordinary railways and high-speed trains.The findings can provide reference for decision-makers to make practical and effective decisions from the perspective of passenger travel preferences.

关 键 词：出行行为 城市群 交通方式选择 出行偏好 行为解析 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]