基于DSSAT模型的未来晋北马铃薯最适播期和品种选择研究  

Optimum Sowing Date and Variety Selection of Potato in Northern Shanxi Province in The Future Based on DSSAT Crop Model

作　　者：张娜 马雅丽[1] 张建新[1] 王大勇[1] ZHANG Na;MA Yali;ZHANG Jianxin;WANG Dayong(Shanxi Climate Center,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省气候中心,太原030006

出　　处：《农学学报》2024年第9期54-61,共8页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201838);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J067);中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN03);山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSQH20205212);山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSQH20236306)。

摘　　要：选取大同市云州区作为研究区,基于DSSAT模型,在基准年和未来气候变化情景(2个CO_(2)浓度:450、550μmol/mol;2个增温:1.5、2.0℃)下开展40个播期和7个温度敏感系数处理的模型模拟试验,其中认为450μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随1.5℃增温、550μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随2.0℃增温情景为未来最可能发生的气候变化,以此探讨未来晋北地区马铃薯最适播期以及品种耐热性的变化特征,并定量分析采取改变最适播期或改变品种措施的增产效应。结果表明:气温升高、CO_(2)浓度增加均使马铃薯最适播期提前,且未来最适播期变化主要源于气温的增加,其中450μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随1.5℃增温、550μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随2.0℃增温,最适播期分别提前4、5 d;采取最适播期管理措施后,通过改变播期将给450μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随1.5℃增温、550μmol/mol CO_(2)伴随2.0℃增温情景分别带来10.2%、20.7%的增产,此时的产量将比基准年产量分别增加12.3%和20.8%;采取改种温度敏感性高的品种,提高品种的耐热性,可以适当提高产量,但提高幅度有限。因此,未来晋北地区可采取播期提前或辅以培育温度敏感性高的新品种来降低未来气候变化的影响,保证马铃薯稳产高产。The paper aimed to explore the change characteristics of optimum sowing date and cultivar heat resistance of potato with climate change in North Shanxi based on DSSAT crop,and the yield increase effect of the optimum sowing date or optimum variety was quantitatively analyzed.The simulation experiment was designed with 40 management inputs of sowing date and 7 temperature sensitivity coefficients(TC)under baseline year and future climate change scenarios in Yunzhou of Datong City.The results showed that,in the future,the rising temperature and increase of CO_(2) concentration would advance the optimum sowing date of potato,and the change of optimum sowing date was mainly due to the rising temperature.Among them,the optimal sowing date would advance 4 days and 5 days at 450μmol/mol CO_(2) with 1.5℃warming and 550μmol/mol CO_(2) with 2.0℃warming,respectively.Adopting the management of optimum sowing date could mitigate climatic negative effects and was in varying degrees of yield increasing effect under each climate change scenario.Among them,the potato yield would increase 10.2%and 20.7%respectively under 450μmol/mol CO_(2) with 1.5℃warming and 550μmol/mol CO_(2) with 2.0℃warming.Production at this time would increase the yield by 12.3%and 20.8%,respectively,over the base year.If changing the varieties with high temperature sensitivity,the heat resistance and yield could increase appropriately,but the increase was limited.Therefore,in the future,early sowing date or cultivation of new varieties with high temperature sensitivity can be adopted in northern Shanxi to reduce the adverse impact of future climate change and ensure stable and high yield of potato.

关 键 词：晋北地区 马铃薯 DSSAT模型 气候变化 适应性对策 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学] P467[农业科学—农业基础科学]