基于模糊综合评价的江西省洪涝灾害风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Flooding in Jiangxi Province Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：傅保清 李沛鸿[2] 熊凡 FU Baoqing;LI Peihong;XIONG Fan(Jiujiang City Mapping and Geographic Infomation Co,Jiujiang 332000,China;school of Civil and surveying&Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]九江市测绘地理信息有限公司,江西九江332000 [2]江西理工大学土木与测绘工程学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《长江信息通信》2024年第8期103-106,共4页Changjiang Information & Communications

摘　　要：文章基于自然灾害风险系统理论,探究洪涝灾害的形成机制,从洪涝灾害危险性、敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力四大风险要素出发,构建了江西省洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,通过层次分析法和熵权法对各项指标进行组合赋权,并结合模糊综合评价法确定隶属函数与模糊关系矩阵,最终得到了研究区洪涝灾害风险评估结果与风险区划图。结果表明:江西省洪涝灾害高风险区主要分布在赣北的鄱阳湖平原,赣东的丘陵平原过渡地带和赣东北的河谷盆地区;而江西省西部、西北部及南部除少数零散地区具有高风险外,普遍为洪灾低风险区。通过已有预案和历史洪灾事件对评估结果进行验证,文章得到的江西省洪涝灾害风险评估结果与历史事实较为一致,可为同类型省域洪涝灾害风险管理提供参考。Based on the theory of natural disaster risk system,the formation mechanism of flood disaster is explored,and the risk assessment index system of flood disaster in Jiangxi Province is constructed from the four risk elements of flood hazard,sensitivity,vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.The rcsults of flood risk assessment and risk zoning map of the study area were finally obtained.The results show that the high-risk areas of flooding in Jiangxi Province are mainly located in the Poyang Lake Plain in northern Ganxi,the transition zone of the hilly plain in eastern Ganxi and the river valley basin area in northeastern Jiangxi;while the western,northwestern and southern Jiangxi Province are generally low-risk arcas of flooding,except for a few scattered areas with high risk.By verifying the assessment results through existing plans and historical flood events,the flood risk assessment results obtained in this paper are more consistent with historical facts in Jiangxi Province and can provide reference for flood risk management in the same type of provinces.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险评估 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]