Burden landscape of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers in Chinese young adults:30 years’overview and forecasted trends  

作　　者：De-Sheng Chen Ze-Ping Chen Dong-Zi Zhu Lv-Xin Guan Qi Zhu Yi-Chao Lou Ze-Ping He Hao-Nan Chen Hong-Cheng Sun 

机构地区：[1]Department of General Surgery,Shanghai General Hospital,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200080,China [2]Department of General Surgery,Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200011,China [3]Shenzhen Institute of Translational Medicine,The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518035,Guangdong Province,China [4]Department of General Surgery,Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,School of Medicine,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310016,Zhejiang Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology》2024年第10期4177-4193,共17页世界胃肠肿瘤学杂志（英文）

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Hepatobiliary and pancreatic(HBP)cancers impose a considerable burden on young populations(aged 15 to 49 years),resulting in a substantial number of new cases and fatalities each year.In young populations,the HBP cancers shows extensive variance worldwide and the updated data in China is lacking.AIM To investigate the current status,trends,projections,and underlying risk factors of HBP cancers among young populations in China.METHODS The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 provided data on the annual incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),mortality rate(ASMR),and DALYs rate(ASDR)of HBP cancers in young Chinese adults between 1990 and 2019.Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change and hierarchical clustering.Sex-specific mortality and DALYs caused by various risks were analyzed across China and other regions,with future trends until 2035 projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.RESULTS From 1990 to 2019,incident cases,deaths,DALYs,ASIR,ASMR,and ASDR for liver cancer(LC)in young Chinese individuals decreased,classified into'significant decrease'group.Conversely,cases of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer rose,categorized as either'significant increase'or'minor increase'groups.The contribution of risk factors to mortality and DALYs for HBP tumors increased to varying degrees.Healthy lifestyle behaviors,such as tobacco control,weight management,alcohol moderation,and drug avoidance,could lower HBP cancers incidence.Moreover,except for LC in females,which is likely to initially decline slightly and then rise,the forecasting model predicted that the ASIR and ASMR for all HPB cancers subtypes by gender will increase among young adults.CONCLUSION HBP cancers burden among young adults in China is expected to increase until 2035,necessitating lifestyle interventions and targeted treatment strategies to mitigate the public health impact of these cancers.

关 键 词：Hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers Burden landscape Young adults PROJECTION China 

分 类 号：R735[医药卫生—肿瘤]