中国流通业高质量发展水平的空间差异与分布动态演进  

Spatial Difference and Dynamic Evolution of High-Quality Development Level of China's Circulation Industry

作　　者：孙先民[1] 张国微 SUN Xian-min;ZHANG Guo-wei(Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《物流研究》2024年第5期1-14,共14页Logistics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY174);研究生创新科研资金项目(YJSCX2022-731HSD)。

摘　　要：以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享、发展保障六个维度为基础,构建中国流通业高质量发展水平评价指标体系,使用TOPSIS熵权—BP神经网络结合法测度2008—2022年中国30个省份(不含西藏和港澳台地区)的流通业高质量发展水平并进行修正,并在此基础上通过核密度、Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数、空间马尔科夫链对中国流通业高质量发展水平的空间分布特征及动态趋势进行分析。研究发现:①测度期内中国流通业高质量发展水平始终保持上升趋势,但存在空间差异,表现为东部>全国>中部>西部;②中国流通业高质量发展水平差异逐渐增大,区域间差异是中国流通业高质量发展水平差异较大的主要原因,差异程度由大到小依次为东西>东中>中西,区域内差异为东部>西部>中部;③时间演进方面,总体呈上升态势,但增速缓慢,无极化现象和收敛性特征;空间演进方面,省份间存在明显的空间集聚效应,且具有差异增加的趋势,中国流通业高质量发展水平受地理位置约束,邻近省份对本省份存在差异化影响。Building an evaluation index system for the high-quality development level of China's circulation industry based on six dimensions:innovation,coordination,green,openness,sharing,and development guarantee.This paper combines TOPSIS entropy-weight method and BP neural network method to measure the high-quality development level of China's circulation industry in 30 provinces from 2008 to 2022(without of Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan).On the basis of this methodology,analyzes the geographical distribution properties and dynamic trends of the high-quality development level of China's circulation industry which is done by using the kernel density estimate,Dagum Gini coefficient,Moran index and Markov chain.This paper finds that:(1)The level of high-quality development of Chinas circulation industry has maintained an upward trend during the measurement period,but there are spatial differences,manifested as east>national>central>west.(2)The difference of high-quality development level of China's circulation industry is gradually increasing,and the regional difference is the main reason for the huge difference of high-quality development level of China's circulation industry.The degree of regional difference in order is east and west>east and central>central and west,and the intra-regional difference is east>west>central.(3)In terms of temporal evolution,the overall trend is upward,but the growth rate is modest,with no radicalization or convergence.In terms of spatial evolution,there is a clear spatial agglomeration effect between provinces,and there is a propensity for disparities to rise.Geographic constraints in neighboring provinces also have a differential impact on province's high-quality development level of China's circulation industry.

关 键 词：流通业高质量发展 区域差异 动态趋势 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济]