公路沥青路面性能全指标预估模型研究  

Research on the Full Index Prediction Model for Asphalt Pavement Performance of Highways

作　　者：于丽梅[1] 田恬 果晓君 唐海翔 Yu Limei;Tian Tian;Guo Xiaojun;Tang Haixiang(Jilin Provincial Institute of Transportation Science,Changchun 130012,China;Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省交通科学研究所,长春市130012 [2]沈阳建筑大学,沈阳市110168

出　　处：《北方交通》2024年第10期26-30,34,共6页Northern Communications

摘　　要：文章基于半马尔可夫模型,利用吉林省普通公路沥青路面2017~2022年的检测数据,首先按照公路等级和养护历史进行数据分组处理,得到不同分组条件下对应的各项路面性能指标的状态转移概率,然后计算得到半马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵库,最后建立了基于状态转移概率矩阵的路面性能预估方程。对比结果表明,预测模型较好地表征了路面使用性能衰变规律,能够预测路面性能衰变。Based on the semi Markov model,the detection data of asphalt pavement of ordinary highways in Jilin province from 2017 to 2022 are used.Firstly,the data is grouped for processing according to the highway grade and maintenance history to obtain the state transition probabilities of various pavement performance indexes under different grouping conditions.Then,the semi Markov state transition probability matrix library is obtained through the calculation.Finally,the pavement performance prediction equation based on the state transition probability matrix is established.The comparison results show that,the prediction model better characterizes the decay law of pavement performance and predicts the decay of pavement performance.

关 键 词：沥青路面 性能全指标预估模型 半马尔可夫模型 状态转移矩阵 路面性能预测 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]