基于博弈论和系统动力学的物流供应链能力决策研究  

Research on Logistics Supply Chain Capability Decision Based on Game Theory and System Dynamics

作　　者：赵晶[1] 王纯 ZHAO Jing;WANG Chun(Xi’an Jiaotong University City College,Xi’an 710018,China;Xi’an Metro Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学城市学院,西安710018 [2]西安市轨道交通集团有限公司,西安710000

出　　处：《自动化与仪器仪表》2024年第9期5-9,共5页Automation & Instrumentation

基　　金：西安交通大学城市学院2021年度校级科研项目《经济新常态背景下陕西金融风险监测指标体系构建研究》(2021Q06)。

摘　　要：针对物流供应链面临的整体运营效率低、成本高等问题,研究基于博弈论和系统动力学搭建了供应链能力决策模型。结果表明,当合作成本为26和30时,供应商选择合作的概率逐渐降低,并不断趋近于0。当合作成本为14、18和22时,提供商选择合作的概率趋近于1。随着市场需求量的突然变化,集成商和提供商的物流服务能力也迅速产生相应的波动。综上所述,合作成本越高则集成商和提供商选择合作的概率越低。风险越高,采取合作策略的比例越低。研究构建的供应链能力决策模型在面临突然的市场需求变化时,也能做出迅速的反应,且物流服务集成商和提供商的反应符合实际情况,具有一定的有效性和稳定性。研究结果有助于推动物流行业的高效发展。Addressing the issues of low efficiency and high costs in logistics operations,a decision model is built using game theory and system dynamics.The results indicate that when the cooperation costs are 26 and 30,the probability of suppliers choosing cooperation gradually decreases and approaches 0.When the cooperation costs are 14,18,and 22,the probability of the provider choosing to cooperate approaches 1.With the sudden changes in market demand,the logistics service capabilities of integrators and providers also rapidly fluctuate accordingly.In summary,the higher the cooperation cost,the lower the probability of integrators and providers choosing to cooperate.The higher the risk,the lower the proportion of adopting cooperative strategies.The supply chain capability decision model constructed by the research can also respond quickly to sudden changes in market demand,and the reactions of logistics service integrators and providers are in line with the actual situation,with a certain degree of effectiveness and stability.The research results contribute to promoting the efficient development of the logistics industry.

关 键 词：物流供应链 博弈论 系统动力学 决策 物流服务 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] TP29[经济管理—国民经济]