黄河流域工业碳排放时空演化特征及影响因素  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：王喜莲[1,2] 屈丽航 WANG Xi-lian;QU Li-hang(School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;Energy Economy and Management Research Center,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院,西安710054 [2]西安科技大学能源经济与管理研究中心,西安710054

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第10期5613-5623,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金项目(2022D063);西安科技大学社会科学繁荣项目(2022SZ01)。

摘　　要：科学评估黄河流域工业碳排放并识别其影响因素,对于推动黄河流域绿色转型、生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义.以黄河流域9省域为研究对象,利用2000~2019年黄河流域工业发展和能源消耗等相关数据,借助IPCC碳排放测算、空间自相关及LMDI分解等方法,对黄河流域工业及工业行业碳排放的时空演化特征及影响因素进行了分析,提出了降低黄河流域工业碳排放的合理化建议.结果表明:①2000~2019年黄河流域工业碳排放呈波折性增长趋势,增长率不断降低;空间格局由“上游低,中、下游高”向“高低值相间分布”转变,空间差异逐步扩大.②高碳行业是黄河流域工业碳排放最主要来源,占比高达96.35%,行业间碳排放呈持续增长态势且差异显著;中、低碳行业碳排放量及总占比都较小,呈不同的波动性变化;9省份碳排放9大工业行业存在显著的空间差异性.③能源结构强度、经济规模和人口规模对黄河流域工业碳排放量具有正向促进作用,能源消费强度具有负向抑制作用;经济规模效应正向显著,抵消了能源消费强度负效应;9省份工业碳排放因素影响效应贡献值存在空间差异性.Scientific assessment of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and identification of its influencing factors are of great importance for promoting green transformation,ecological protection,and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Considering nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects;using relevant data on industrial development and energy consumption in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019;and with the help of IPCC carbon emission measurement,spatial autocorrelation,and LMDI decomposition,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from industries and industrial sectors in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed.Reasonable suggestions were put forward for reducing the carbon emissions from industries in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that:①From 2000 to 2019,industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed a fluctuating growth trend,with a decreasing growth rate.The spatial pattern changed from“low in the upstream and high in the middle and downstream”to“high and low value distribution,”and the spatial difference gradually expanded.②The high carbon industry was the most important source of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,accounting for 96.35% of the carbon emissions between the industries with a continuous growth trend,which was a significant difference.The middle and low carbon industry carbon emissions and the total proportion was low,showing different fluctuations;nine provinces and nine industrial industries had significant spatial variability.③Energy structure intensity,economic scale,and population scale promoted the increase in industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and energy consumption intensity had an inhibitory effect on the increase in carbon emissions.The economic scale effect was positive and significant,which offset the negative effect of energy consumption intensity.Spatial variability was observed in the contribution va

关 键 词：工业碳排放 时空演化特征 因素分解 黄河流域 工业行业 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]