Urbanization and carbon emissions in China:Analysis of dynamic relationships from 1978 to 2020  

中国城镇化与碳排放——1978-2020年的动态关系分析

作　　者：WEI Zhongyin TU Jianjun XIAO Lin SUN Wenjing 魏中胤;涂建军;肖林;孙文靓

机构地区：[1]College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China [2]Collaborative Innovation Center of Non-Public Economic Development and Anti-compensation for Poverty in West of China,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2024年第10期1925-1952,共28页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China,No.20ZDA156。

摘　　要：Since China's reform and opening-up in 1978,rapid urbanization has coincided with a surge in carbon emissions.Statistical,geospatial,and time-series analysis methods were utilized to examine the dynamic relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions over the past 43 years;elucidate the mechanisms through which dimensions of urbanization,such as population,land,economy,and green development,impact carbon emissions at various stages;and further explore the heterogeneity among cities of different scales.The analysis reveals that 2001 and 2011 represent significant turning points in China's carbon emission growth“S”curve.The phase of rapid carbon emissions growth is associated with an increase in the urbanization rate from 40% to 50%,a shift in industrial structure from being dominated by secondary industry to tertiary industry,and a decrease in urban population density from 19,600 to 16,000 people per square kilometer of built-up area.Regions northeast of the“Bayannur-Ningde Line”have experienced rapid increases in carbon emissions,with large and medium-sized cities being the primary contributors nationwide.The TVP-VAR results indicate that higher urbanization rates have short-term carbon and mid-to long-term carbon-reducing effects.Population concentration in large cities facilitates short-to mid-term carbon reduction,whereas intensive urban development,industrial upgrading,and the promotion of clean energy use have sustained carbon-reducing effects.Carbon emissions exhibit path dependence.Increased urbanization rates in mega-cities and super-cities result in carbon-increasing effects,whereas the optimization of industrial structures exerts an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in medium-sized and large cities.The changes in impulse response values of various variables are influenced by the developmental trajectory of Chinese cities from“small to large and then to agglomerations.”These recommendations indicate the necessity for differentiated emission reduction strategies contingent on the sp

关 键 词：URBANIZATION carbon emissions urban development REFORM TVP-VAR 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]