发展方式绿色转型对农民工就业的影响--来自碳排放权交易试点的证据  

Impact of the Green Development Mode Transformation on the Employment of Migrant Workers

作　　者：齐秀琳 汪心如 张恬 Qi Xiulin;Wang Xinru;Zhang Tian

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第5期34-49,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“河南数字农业发展赋能农业固碳减排的实现路径研究”(编号:2022BJJ095);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划“数字经济与产业创新”(编号:2023-CXTD-01)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章结合碳排放权交易试点和2011~2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用多期双重差分法考察了发展方式绿色转型对农民工就业的影响。研究结果表明:(1)绿色转型有助于提高农民工就业率,碳排放权交易试点政策使农民工就业率提高了4.4个百分点,该结果在处理多期双重差分权重异质性后依然成立;(2)绿色转型改变了农民工就业结构,使大量农民工流入到非技能密集型行业;(3)绿色转型在提高农民工就业率的同时恶化了其就业状况,表现为工资水平与劳动合同签订概率均显著下降。文章的结论对兼顾推动绿色转型和促进农民工就业的政策建设具有一定的参考意义。Based on the carbon emissions trading pilot and the 2011-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),this paper examines the impact of the green transformation of the development approach on the employment of migrant workers using the multi-period difference-in-differences method.The study finds that,firstly,the green transformation significantly increased the employment rate of migrant workers,and the carbon emissions trading pilot policy increased the employment rate of migrant workers by 4.4%.The result still holds after dealing with multi-period difference-in-differences weight heterogeneity.Second,the green transformation changed the employment structure of migrant workers,causing a large number of migrant workers to flow into unskilled-intensive industries.Third,the green transformation worsens the employment situation of migrant workers while increasing their employment rate,as evidenced by a significant decline in wage levels and the probability of signing a labor contract.The conclusions of this paper are relevant to the construction of policies that balance the promotion of green transformation and the employment of migrant workers.

关 键 词：农民工 绿色转型 碳排放权交易试点 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F323.6F249.2