基于分层负二项模型的山区高速公路隧道交通安全分析  

Traffic Safety Analysis of Mountainous Freeway Tunnel Based on Hierarchical Negative Binomial Model

作　　者：叶斯哈提·阿扎提 王雪松[1] 张学芳 周朝飞 万瑶 AZATI Yesihati;WANG Xuesong;ZHANG Xuefang;ZHOU Chaofei;WAN Yao(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Guizhou Regional Management Headquarters of Asset Management Co.,Ltd.of China Communication Construction Co.,Ltd,Guizhou 551200,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]中交资产管理有限公司贵州区域管理总部,贵州551200

出　　处：《交通与运输》2024年第5期19-24,共6页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(5237120382)。

摘　　要：为分析山区高速公路隧道路段的几何设计、交通运行和环境因素对事故频次的影响,通过采集36个隧道路段的多源数据,在贝叶斯框架下构建分层负二项模型分析隧道事故频次。结果表明,长隧道路段更容易发生事故,隧道入口至中间路段事故更多,事故频次随路段曲率和坡度变化率、日均交通流量和大雾天数增加而显著上升,路面抗滑性能越差,事故越多。研究为交通管理部门制定隧道安全改善措施提供理论依据。In order to analyze the impact of geometric design,traffic operation,and environmental factors on the frequency of crashes in mountainous freeway tunnels,data from 36 tunnel sections were collected,and a hierarchical negative binomial model was constructed within a Bayesian framework to analyze tunnel crash frequency.The results show that long tunnel sections are more prone to crashes,with more crashes occurring from the tunnel entrance to the middle section.Crash frequency significantly increases with greater changes in road curvature and slope,higher average daily traffic flow,and more foggy days.Additionally,poorer road skid resistance leads to more crashes.The study provides a theoretical basis for traffic management departments to develop safety improvement measures for tunnel sections.

关 键 词：山区高速公路 隧道 事故频次 分层负二项模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]