生态系统服务与人类活动协调性时空演变及预测  

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of coordination between ecosystem service and human activity

作　　者：刘涛 张海朋 杨孟豪 LIU Tao;ZHANG Haipeng;YANG Menghao(Henan Institute of Geological Sciences Co.Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450007,China;Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development&Yellow River Civilization by Provincial and Ministerial Co-construction of Collaborative Innovation Center,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,China;College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地质科学研究所有限公司,河南郑州450007 [2]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,河南开封475001 [3]华北水利水电大学测绘与地理信息学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第10期101-109,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402402);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(23YJC790185);河南省软科学项目(242400411176);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(24B170003)。

摘　　要：探究并预测生态系统服务与人类活动之间关系的演变特征对于推动建设人与自然和谐共生的生态新格局意义重大。以陕西省黄河流域为例,通过价值当量法、人类活动强度模型、PLUS模型和多种统计分析方法,对生态系统服务与人类活动以及二者之间的协调性进行时空演变特征分析和多情景预测。结果表明:1980~2020年陕西省黄河流域生态系统服务价值总体增加54.33亿元,与2020年相比,2030年惯性发展和经济优先模式下生态系统服务价值分别减少7.81亿元、20.11亿元,耕地保护和生态保护模式下分别增加0.27亿元、8.24亿元。1980~2020年人类活动强度呈现出“N”形变化特征,与2020年相比,经济优先和惯性发展模式下人类活动强度增强,耕地保护和生态保护模式下有所减弱。研究区生态系统服务与人类活动呈现逐渐增强的负相关关系,二者协调性较差,2030年生态保护模式下二者的负相关作用最弱,经济优先模式下最强。综合来看,未来经济优先模式下的负面影响最大,陕西省黄河流域应优先选择生态保护型的发展模式。Exploring and predicting the evolution characteristics of relationship between ecosystem service and human activity is of great significance for promoting construction for the ecological security pattern of harmonious coexistence between human and nature.Taking the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province as an example,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services and human activities,as well as their coordination,through value equivalence method,human activity intensity model,PLUS model,and various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that the overall ecosystem service value of the Shaanxi Yellow River Basin increased by 5.433 billion yuan from 1980 to 2020.Compared with the result in 2020,the ecosystem service value under the inertia development mode and economic priority mode would decrease by 781 million yuan and 2.011 billion yuan respectively in 2030.The ecosystem service value under the cultivated land protection mode and ecological protection mode would increase by 27 million yuan and 824 million yuan respectively in 2030.From 1980 to 2020,the human activity intensity showed a"N"shaped change pattern.Compared with 2020,the human activity intensity increased under the economic priority mode and inertia development mode,while weakened under the cultivated land protection mode and ecological protection mode in 2030.In the study area,the negative correlation between ecosystem service and human activity was gradually increasing,and such coordination was poor.In 2030,the negative correlation between ecosystem service and human activity would be the weakest in the ecological protection mode,while the strongest in the economic priority model.Overall,the negative impact of economic priority mode is the greatest in the future,and the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province should give priority to the ecological protection mode.

关 键 词：生态系统服务 人类活动 多情景模拟 协调性 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1