行人过街行为分析与建模  

Pedestrian crossing behavior analysis and modeling

作　　者：何明卫[1] 蒋银凤 肖海承[1] 李博 HE Mingwei;JIANG Yinfeng;XIAO Haicheng;LI Bo(School of Traffic Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第10期3897-3908,共12页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：云南省科技厅“双一流”创建联合专项(202201BE070001-052)。

摘　　要：行人过街违章行为的影响因素及过街行为建模对行人过街安全和行人违章特性研究具有重要的理论意义。通过多层次交叉联列表方法分析了影响行人过马路违章行为的因素,并建立了多元Logistic模型。检验结果表明,模型存在共线性问题,通过逐步回归方法筛选出10个显著影响行人违章行为的因素。通过模型分析发现,影响行人违章过马路的多种因素中,年龄、是否携带东西、结伴情况、受教育程度、等待过街人数、信号灯了解程度、视力情况、路口类型、有无机非护栏和过街位置都对违章行为有显著影响。年轻人和结伴行人更可能违章,而受过高等教育的人违章概率较低;对信号灯和路况了解不足、视力不佳的行人违章概率较高;路口类型和是否有护栏也会影响违章行为,远离车辆过街的行人违章概率更大。Road traffic accidents caused by pedestrians violating traffic rules and regulations constitute a significant proportion of total traffic fatalities.To mitigate these accidents,this study categorizes pedestrian crossing behaviors into three types:time violations,space violations,and compliance.It examines these behaviors across various factors including individual characteristics,street crossings,traffic conditions,and infrastructure facilities.The factors influencing pedestrian traffic violation behavior are analyzed using a multi-level cross-linked list method,and a multiple Logistic model is established.Test results reveal collinearity issues within the model.Utilizing the stepwise regression method,10 significant factors affecting pedestrian violation behavior are identified.Through model analysis,it was observed that individuals aged 18 to 60 are more likely to commit time violations compared to those aged 60 and above.Furthermore,carrying items significantly influences violations,with carrying items increasing the likelihood of choosing both time and space violations.Additionally,group dynamics,education level,the size of the pedestrian group waiting to cross,comprehension of signal lights,visual acuity,crossing location,and presence of guardrails on the road also influence the choice of unlawful behavior.Higher education levels correlate with lower violation probabilities,while larger pedestrian groups waiting to cross the street correspond to higher violation probabilities.Individuals with poor eyesight exhibit a higher tendency towards time violation behavior.Regarding intersection type and road structure,oblique pedestrians are more inclined towards time violations,whereas pedestrians at T-intersections exhibit a lower rate of time violation.The increased probability of pedestrian violation in non-guardrail sections suggests that guardrails have a significant impact on pedestrian behavior.There is a negative correlation between crossing location and time and space violation,indicating that the probabili

关 键 词：安全社会工程 行人违章 步行交通 多元Logistic模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]