城市蔓延对碳排放的影响效应研究——基于中国278个城市面板数据的实证检验  

Research on the Effect of Urban Sprawl on Carbon Emissions——An Empirical Test Based on the Panel Data of 278 cities in China

作　　者：马建辉 郭昭鹏[2] 何淼 MA Jianhui;GUO Zhaopeng;HE Miao(School of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;College of Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院,吉林长春130012 [3]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第10期119-130,共12页Economic Forum

基　　金：河北省社科基金项目“河北省土地利用碳核算和脱钩分析”(HB21TJ004);河北省社会科学发展研究重点课题“河北省碳核算、碳达峰及脱钩研究”(20210101015);保定市哲学社会科学规划课题“保定市碳核算与碳达峰研究”(2021022)。

摘　　要：“十四五”规划进一步明确了城市发展的新理念与新趋势,提出建设低碳城市,而合理的城市发展模式是建设低碳城市的必然选择。文章基于类NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光、LandScan人口分布、土地利用等多源数据,核算中国278个城市的碳排放总量和城市蔓延指数,进而利用固定效应模型和空间滞后模型实证考察城市蔓延对碳排放的影响。研究发现,城市蔓延对碳排放具有提升效应,且这一提升效应主要通过增加通勤距离以及改变土地利用结构来实现,碳排放的空间溢出性会进一步增强该效应。文章考察了地理区位、城市规模所产生的异质性影响,认为当城市规模较小、经济活动密度较低时,城市蔓延对碳排放的提升效应相对较大;对于规模较大、经济密度较高的城市,分散的城市发展模式更能够降低城市碳排放水平。The“14th Five-Year Plan”further clarifies the new concept and trend of urban development,pro-posing the construction of low-carbon cities,and the rational urban development mode is the inevitable choice for the construction of low-carbon cities.Based on multi-source data such as NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light,Land-scan population distribution,and land use,this paper calculates the carbon emissions and urban sprawl index of 278 Chinese cities,and then uses fixed-effects and spatial lag model to empirically investigate the effects of urban sprawl on carbon emissions.This study finds that urban sprawl has enhancement effect on carbon emissions,and the spatial spillover of carbon emissions further enhances the enhancement effect.The enhancement effect of urban sprawl on carbon emissions is mainly achieved by increasing commuting distance and changing land use structure.This paper also examines the effects of heterogeneity arising from geographic location and city size.When cities are small in size with low density of economic activities,the enhancement effect of urban sprawl on carbon emissions is relatively large;for larger cities with higher economic density,decentralized urban development patterns are more likely to reduce urban carbon emission levels.

关 键 词：城市空间结构 碳排放 城市蔓延 多源数据 影响机制 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2