考虑测量不确定性的ANN-Wiener过程加速退化试验评估  

Accelerated Degradation Test of ANN-Wiener Process Considering Measurement Uncertainty

作　　者：李小璐 锁斌 LI Xiaolu;SUO Bin(School of Information Engineering,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学信息工程学院,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《探测与控制学报》2024年第5期87-92,98,共7页Journal of Detection & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1830133)。

摘　　要：考虑加速退化试验过程中关键性能参数的测量不确定性,将测量不确定性处理为区间数,并建立一种结合人工神经网络与Wiener过程的区间加速退化数据可靠性评估方法。基于ANN-Wiener过程构建加速退化数据的负对数似然函数,采用遗传算法建立负对数似然函数未知参数的求解方法,最终实现了区间加速退化试验的可靠性评估。通过激光器的加速退化试验,对该方法进行验证,比较该方法与其他方法评估得到的可靠度和真实可靠度的绝对误差,结果表明,基于ANN-Wiener过程对可靠度的评估结果更准确,且考虑到测量不确定性因素的影响,得到激光器可靠度的保守和乐观估计。相同可靠度的情况下,忽略测量不确定性时的评估时间晚于保守估计的评估时间,会导致产品预防维护时机的推迟,增大产品运行过程中的失效风险,增加因产品失效而造成的损失。Considering the measurement uncertainty of key performance parameters in the process of accelerated degradation test,the measurement uncertainty was treated as interval number,and a reliability evaluation method of interval accelerated degradation data combining artificial neural network and Wiener process was established.Based on the ANN-Wiener process,the negative log-likelihood function of the accelerated degradation data was constructed,and the genetic algorithm was used to establish the solution method of the unknown parameters of the negative log-likelihood function.Finally,the reliability evaluation of the interval accelerated degradation test was realized.The proposed method was verified by an example of accelerated degradation test of laser.The absolute errors of reliability and true reliability obtained by the proposed method and other methods were compared.The results showed that the evaluation results of reliability based on ANN-Wiener process were more accurate.Considering the influence of measurement uncertainty,the conservative estimation and optimistic estimation of laser reliability were obtained.Comparing the evaluation results when ignoring the measurement uncertainty with the evaluation results of the conservative estimation,under the same reliability,the evaluation time when ignoring the measurement uncertainty was later than the evaluation time of the conservative estimation,which would lead to the delay of the preventive maintenance time of the product,thus increasing the failure risk during the operation of the product and increasing the loss caused by the failure of the product.

关 键 词：加速退化试验 WIENER过程 测量不确定性 人工神经网络 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]