基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法的高风电渗透下电力系统可靠性与成本分析  

Reliability and Cost Analysis of Power System under High Wind Power Penetration Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：王宇轩 WANG Yuxuan(Newcastle University,Newcastle,Tyne andWear NE17RU,UK)

机构地区：[1]英国纽卡斯尔大学,泰恩-威尔泰恩河畔纽卡斯尔NE17RU

出　　处：《山西电力》2024年第5期14-17,共4页Shanxi Electric Power

摘　　要：为研究风电渗透率增加对电力系统运行可靠性的影响,提出了一种通过序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行仿真,结合可靠性指标与发电成本的综合分析方法,基于单区域RTS96系统开展仿真分析。结果表明,在缺乏储能设备等可靠性保障措施的情况下,系统的电量不足期望值和缺电时间期望值随着风电渗透率的提升呈现近似指数型增长。该方法在保证系统可靠性的同时可以找到最大化发电成本效益的风电渗透率,为电力系统规划提供参考。In order to study the effect of increased penetration of wind power on the reliability of power system operation,a se-quential Monte Carlo method is proposed for simulation.And simulation analysis is carried out based on single-region RTS96 system,combined with the comprehensive analysis method of reliability index and power generation cost.The results show that,in the absence of reliability safeguard measures such as energy storage equipment,with the increase of the wind power penetration,the expected power shortage and the expected power shortage time of the system show an approximately exponential increase.This method can help identi-fy the wind power penetration that maximizes cost effectiveness of power generation while ensuring system reliability,which can pro-vide reference for power system planning.

关 键 词：电力系统 可靠性评估 序贯蒙特卡洛方法 MATLAB仿真 风电渗透率 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]