热带气旋多致灾因子综合风险评估研究进展  

Progress in multi-hazard risk assessment for tropical cyclone

作　　者：陶凯 廖新利 苏鹏 徐伟[1,2,3] TAO Kai;LIAO Xinli;SU Peng;XU Wei(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management&Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2024年第9期1-9,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学联合基金项目(U22B2011);高等学校学科创新引智基地(BP0820003);环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题(2023-KF-08)。

摘　　要：【目的】热带气旋伴随的大风、暴雨及引发的风暴潮、洪涝等致灾因子,为热带气旋风险评估带来了极大的挑战。针对当前热带气旋多致灾因子综合风险评估方法不一的问题,【方法】通过文献分析方法,阐述了热带气旋多致灾因子间的相互关系,并对热带气旋多致灾因子的危险性、承灾体脆弱性和风险评估研究现状进行了梳理。【结果】结果表明:综合考虑热带气旋多因子复合链生关系的定量化风险评估方法极为缺乏,如何降低气候变化背景下未来热带气旋风险评估结果的不确定性是当前的一个难点。【结论】未来可以在厘清热带气旋多致灾因子复杂关系的基础上,基于大数据和机器学习等计算机手段,从机理角度研发热带气旋多致灾因子复合链生关系的承灾体损失和风险量化模型,从而实现热带气旋多致灾因子损失和风险的精准和量化评估,为应急管理和风险防范提供重要支撑。[Objective]The strong wind,rainfall and induced storm surge,flooding and waterlogging of a tropical cyclone greatly challenge the hazard and risk assessment of tropical cyclones.In response to the different method of risk assessment,[Methods]based on the literature analysis,the relationships among different hazards of tropical cyclones are discussed.The current advancements in assessing of hazards,vulnerability and risks of multi-hazard for tropical cyclones are summarized.[Results]The result indicates that there is a lack of quantitative risk assessment method that integrating the compound and causing-and-effect relationships of multi-hazards in tropical cyclones.It′s still a challenge to reduce the uncertainty of risk assessment in the context of global change.[Conclusion]It is an important task in the future to develop integrated and quantitative models on the losses and risks of tropical cyclones from a mechanistic perspective using big data and computer tools such as machine learning on the basis of clarifying the complex relationship between multi-hazard of tropical cyclones.With this,it is expected to achieve precise and quantitative assessment of tropical cyclone losses and risks,thus to provide important support for emergency management and risk prevention.

关 键 词：热带气旋 风险评估 多灾种 灾害链 降水 气候变化 极端暴雨 致灾因子 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5