陕北地区铁路煤炭运输需求分析及预测  

Analysis and Forecast of Railway Coal Transportation Demand in Northern Shaanxi Region

作　　者：姜良杰 袁晓军 JIANG Liangjie;YUAN Xiaojun(Traffic Control Office,China Railway Xi’an Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an 710000,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁路西安局集团有限公司调度所,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《铁道货运》2024年第10期39-48,共10页Railway Freight Transport

摘　　要：陕北地区是我国重要的煤炭生产基地,又处于“蒙煤南运”“疆煤东运”的必经之路,是铁路煤炭货源的重要富集地。通过梳理近年来陕北地区煤炭资源、运输需求与供给的变化情况,对运输需求影响因素的作用机理进行系统分析,建立铁路煤炭运输需求预测指标体系,选择BP神经网络预测法对未来3年陕北地区铁路煤炭运输需求进行预测及分析,并基于预测结果提出包括优化路网布局、精细运输组织、加强铁路现代物流体系建设等煤炭运输增量措施,从而避免煤炭供给受限、铁路基础设施重复建设等现象发生,确保铁路系统高效运行。Northern Shaanxi region is an important coal production base in China and on the only way to transport coal from Inner Mongolia to the south and from Xinjiang to the east,thus becoming an important enrichment area of railway coal sources.By sorting out the changes of coal resources,transportation demand,and supply in northern Shaanxi region in recent years,this study systematically analyzed the mechanisms of factors influencing transportation demand and established a prediction index system for railway coal transportation demand.The back propagation(BP)neural network prediction method was selected to forecast and analyze the railway coal transportation demand in northern Shaanxi region in the next three years.Based on the prediction results,the measures for coal transportation increment were proposed,including optimizing the layout of the road network,refining transportation organization,and strengthening the construction of a modern railway logistics system,for the purposes of avoiding limited coal supply and the repeated construction of railway infrastructure and ensuring the highefficiency operation of the railway system.

关 键 词：陕北地区 铁路煤炭运输 需求预测 BP神经网络模型 货运增量 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]