基于技术关联模型的前沿技术对作战效能影响评估方法  

A Method for Evaluating the Influence of Frontier Technology on Combat Effectiveness Based on Technology Correlation Model

作　　者：王晓悦 陈科[2] 郭牧天[2] 刘大卫 熊涛[2] WANG Xiaoyue;CHEN Ke;GUO Mutian;LIU Dawei;XIONG Tao(School of Astronautics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;China Academy of Ordnance Science,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学宇航学院,北京100081 [2]中国兵器科学研究院,北京100089

出　　处：《兵工学报》2024年第10期3519-3529,共11页Acta Armamentarii

摘　　要：前沿技术对作战效能的影响评估在武器装备发展论证、技术体系决策建设等方面具有重要意义。从前沿技术发展决策的实际需求出发,开展前沿技术对作战效能评估方法研究。通过研究国内外技术评估流程及方法,建立前沿技术对军事应用价值的评估流程,设计技术关联模型与二次效应模型,提出基于指标体系与技术关联模型的前沿技术评估方法。在典型作战场景下,通过构建前沿技术评估指标体系、前沿技术对作战能力影响评估指标体系、大数据统计分析、专家经验校对打分,进行10项典型前沿技术对作战效能影响评估。评估结果表明,新设计的基于指标体系与技术关联模型的评估方法可以有效地实现对前沿技术作战效能影响的评估。The evaluation of the influence of frontier technology on combat effectiveness is of great significance to the demonstration of weapon and equipment development and the decision-making in construction of technology system.The evaluation method for evaluating the effect of frontier technology in combat effectiveness is studied based on the actual demand of frontier technology development decision.By studying the technology evaluation process and methods at home and abroad,a military value evaluation process of frontier technology is established,a technology correlation model and a secondary effect model are designed,and a frontier technology evaluation method based on the index system and technology correlation model is proposed.The influences of ten typical frontier technologies on combat effectiveness in typical combat scenarios are evaluated by constructing an evaluation index system of frontier technologies,an evaluation index system for evaluating the influence of frontier technologies on combat capability,the big data statistical analysis,and the expert experience checking score.The evaluated results show that the proposed evaluation method based on index system and technology correlation model can effectively evaluate the influence of frontier technology on combat effectiveness.

关 键 词：前沿技术 技术关联模型 指标体系 作战效能影响评估 

分 类 号：TJ301[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]