中国与“一带一路”国家粮食贸易驱动的虚拟水流动时空格局及其节水效益  

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Virtual Water Flow Driven by Grain Trade between China and Countries along ‘the Belt and Road' and Its Water-Saving Benefits

作　　者：田贵良[1,2,3] 杨雨璇 陈天荣[4] TIAN Guiliang;YANG Yuxuan;CHEN Tianrong(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学经济与金融学院,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [4]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水文》2024年第5期54-60,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“变化环境下黄河流域“实体水-虚拟水”二维循环机理与多空间尺度流动格局优化”(42371312);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“乡村振兴战略背景下金融市场结构与农村家庭创业的匹配研究”(21YJC790070)。

摘　　要：粮食贸易是“一带一路”国家经济贸易合作中至关重要的部分之一,可以带动粮食生产全过程所需的虚拟水流动。将单位粮食产品虚拟水量纳入粮食贸易数据系统,进而揭示中国与“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易驱动的虚拟水流动时空格局,并测算粮食贸易所实现的全局性节水效益。研究发现:(1)研究时段中国粮食贸易所驱动的虚拟水净进口量逐年上升,净进口结构以稻米和玉米为主。(2)中国粮食虚拟水进口来源国结构稳定但相对单一,建议粮食贸易对象多元化;粮食虚拟水出口量较少,出口对象国相对分散。(3)结合水资源禀赋可以看出,在进口不可避免的前提下,中国考虑进口地区水资源禀赋后的粮食进口虽然未显示水资源节约,但浪费量大幅减少;粮食出口稀缺节水量为正,具有一定的节水效益。基于研究结果,提出我国可通过降低粮食进口国集中度,优化粮食贸易空间布局,在保障粮食安全的同时,通过虚拟水贸易实现水资源有效节约,拓展节水的思路与路径。Grain trade is a crucial component of economic and trade cooperation among countries along ‘the Belt and Road',facilitating the flow of virtual water required throughout the grain production process.Based on the Penman formula,this study incorporated the virtual water content per unit of grain product into the grain trade data system,revealing the spatiotemporal pattern of virtual water flows driven by grain trade between China and countries along ‘the Belt and Road',and calculated the global water-saving benefits achieved through grain trade.The results are as follows:(1) The net import volume of virtual water driven by China's grain trade has increased annually,predominantly comprising rice and corn.(2) The structure of importing countries for China's virtual water in grain is stable yet relatively concentrated,and it is suggested that the grain trade object should be diversified;The volume of virtual water exported in grain is small,with export destinations being relatively dispersed.(3) Combined with the water resources endowment,it can be seen that under the premise that import is inevitable,Chinese grain import considering the water resources endowment of the import area does not show water resource saving,but the amount of waste is greatly reduced.The water saving of grain export scarcity is positive,which has a certain water saving benefit.Based on these results,it is suggested that China could reduce the concentration of grain-importing countries and optimize the spatial layout of grain trade.By doing so,it ensures food security while achieving effective water resource savings through virtual water trade,thereby expanding ideas and pathways for water conservation.

关 键 词：粮食贸易 虚拟水流动时空格局 节水效益 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F52[经济管理—产业经济] P333[天文地球—水文科学]