中国海洋产业蓝碳源汇识别与碳汇发展潜力初探  

Identification of Blue Carbon Sources and Sinks in China’s Marine Industry and the Preliminary Study on the Development Potential of Carbon Sequestration

作　　者：卢昆 李汉瑾 Hui Yu 王健 吴春明[7] 孙祥科 Lu Kun;Li Hanjin;Hui Yu;Wang Jian;Wu Chunming;Sun Xiangke

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院 [2]中国海洋大学海洋碳中和中心 [3]英国朴次茅斯大学蓝色治理中心 [4]中国海洋大学 [5]英国格拉斯哥大学心理与神经科学学院 [6]山东省海洋科学研究院 [7]中国海洋大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国海洋经济》2024年第2期188-215,222,223,共30页Marine Economy in China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2022YFD2401200);中国国家留学基金(CSC NO.202306330118);中国海洋大学管理学院青年英才支持计划资助。

摘　　要：本文在探讨海洋产业开发中的蓝碳源汇分布特征及其关键形成过程的基础上,鉴于海洋第二、第三产业统计数据不足和碳汇评估方法的缺失,根据碳系数法与平均营养级法,测度了中国海洋第一产业开发所蕴含的碳汇水平,并运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1),对“碳达峰”和“碳中和”目标对应年份中国海洋第一产业的蓝碳水平进行了预测。研究发现:(1)海洋第一产业开发具有“源汇一体”的双重属性,海洋第二产业的运行过程以碳排放为主,实现海洋增汇的手段较少,海洋第三产业源汇的形成在各个细分行业表现出差异性,其中海洋旅游业的碳汇潜力较大;(2)中国海洋第一产业的蓝碳总量已从2003年的4319.348万吨增至2022年的5194.770万吨,年均增长率约为0.98%;(3)中国海洋第一产业的蓝碳总量在2030年将增至6035.405万吨,相当于每年大约义务造林806.19万公顷,创造的储碳价值将达到150.7262亿元,与之对应的2060年的数据则分别为8996.405万吨、1201.71万公顷和224.6732亿元。This paper presents a preliminary study of the distribution characteristics and key formation processes of Blue Carbon sources and sinks in the development of the marine industry.Given the limited availability of statistical data for the secondary and tertiary sectors of the marine industry and the absence of carbon sequestration assessment methods,this paper introduces the measurement of the level of carbon sequestration in China’s marine pri-mary industry using the carbon coefficient method and the average trophic level method.Addi-tionally,it uses the grey prediction model GM(1,1)to forecast the level of Blue Carbon in China’s marine primary industry for the period corresponding to the“Carbon Peak”and“Carbon Neutrality”targets.The findings are summarized as follows:(1)The development of the marine primary industry possesses dual attributes of being both a source and a sink,whereas operations in the marine secondary industry are primarily carbon-emitting,offering limited means to enhance carbon sequestration.The formation of sources and sinks in the marine tertiary industry shows difference among different sub-sectors,with the marine tourism industry holding a greater potential for carbon sequestration.(2)The total blue car-bon in China’s marine primary industry increased from 43.1935 million tons in 2003 to 51.9477 million tons in 2022,with an average annual growth rate of about 0.98%.(3)The total Blue Carbon in China’s marine primary industry is expected to rise to 60.35405 million tons by 2030,equivalent to approximate 8.0619 million hectares of afforestation,with a car-bon storage value of 15.07262 billion RMB Yuan.The data for 2060 would be 89.96405 million tons,12.0171 million hectares of afforestation,and 22.46732 billion RMB Yuan respectively.

关 键 词：蓝碳 海洋产业 海洋碳汇 灰色预测 GM(1.1)模型 

分 类 号：X145[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]