中国主要高空航路飞机颠簸的时空分布特征  

Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of turbulence on major high-altitude aircraft routes in China

作　　者：李克南 武凯军 刘海文[1] 许文艳 李国平[2] 杨朝虹 刘刚 段伯隆 LI Kenan;WU Kaijun;LIU Haiwen;XU Wenyan;LI Guoping;YANG Zhaohong;LIU Gang;DUAN Bolong(Department of Aviation Meteorology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Jiangxi Air Traffic Control Branch,Nanchang 330114,China;Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学航空气象系,天津300300 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [3]民航江西空管分局,江西南昌330114 [4]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2024年第5期789-797,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-中国民用航空局联合研究基金重点项目(U2033207);中央高校基本科研业务专项(3122015C023)。

摘　　要：飞机颠簸是影响飞机安全的主要天气事件之一。本文利用6498份PIREPs(Pilot Reports,航空器空中报告)资料,采用数据质量控制以及核密度分析等统计分析方法,研究了中国主要航路上飞机颠簸的时空分布特征以及造成飞机颠簸的可能原因。结果表明,6年来,发生在中国上空的飞机颠簸具有多时间尺度分布特征。2011—2016年飞机颠簸次数存在上升趋势,2013年之后飞机颠簸次数表现为增加后的相对平稳状态;从季节变化来看,无论是飞机颠簸次数还是飞机颠簸强度,均呈现冬春季飞机颠簸多且强、夏秋季飞机颠簸少且弱的特点;从飞机颠簸次数的逐月变化来看,其随月份的变化近似为“漏斗”状分布;从日变化来看,飞机颠簸次数具有明显的“三峰”特征。飞机颠簸次数具有明显的地域特征,在中国区域上空呈现出“东边多、西边少”的特点。此外,发生在中国上空的南北向主要航路上的飞机颠簸,在其空间分布上,若用线条将飞机颠簸最大次数连接起来,则其由华北上空出发经南昌再到成都,连线呈现为一个大的“逗号”状;飞机颠簸出现的高度具有明显的地域性,其中华北是飞机发生高高空颠簸和高空颠簸次数最多的地区,而华东和西南则是发生中空颠簸的主要地区,新疆地区低空颠簸最多。除对流外,中国飞行颠簸时空分布受高空急流主导,而新疆地区受风切变影响,其低空易发生颠簸。Aircraft turbulence is a significant meteorological event impacting flight safety.This study analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of aircraft turbulence on major air routes across China,as well as the underlying causes of observed turbulence patterns.The analysis utilizes 6498 Pilot Reports(PIREPs),employing data quality control and kernel density analysis.Results reveal that aircraft turbulence over China exhibits a distinct multi-scale temporal distribution.From 2011 to 2016,the incidence of turbulence showed an increasing trend,stabilizing after 2013.Seasonally,turbulence frequency and intensity peak during winter and spring,while they diminish during summer and autumn.Monthly variations follow a“funnel-shaped”pattern,and daily variations exhibit a clear“three-peak”characteristic.Regionally,turbulence frequency is higher in eastern China compared to western regions.Notably,turbulence along the main north-south air routes forms a large“comma”shape,stretching from North China through Nanchang to Chengdu.The altitude of turbulence also shows regional distinctions:North China experience the most high-altitude turbulence,while mid-altitude turbulence predominates in East and Southwest China.Xinjiang is notable for its prevalence of low-altitude turbulence.The spatiotemporal distribution of turbulence in China is primarily influenced by the upper-level jet stream,with wind shear contributing to low-altitude turbulence in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：飞机颠簸 高空急流 航空器空中报告 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]