共建“一带一路”对我国绿色溢出、溢回效应的影响——基于全球碳泄漏联通网络的差分检验  

The Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on Green Spillover and Spillback in China:Based on Difference Test in a Global Carbon Leakage Network

作　　者：黄孝武[1,2] 赵鑫 焦骜 HUANG Xiaowu;ZHAO Xin;JIAO Ao

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,武汉430073 [2]中南财经政法大学产业升级与区域金融湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430073

出　　处：《亚太经济》2024年第5期40-57,共18页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’投资安全保障体系研究”(19ZDA101);国家社会科学基金重点研究项目“全球价值链动态优化与金融稳定研究”(20AJY025);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项中研究生科研创新平台项目“全球价值链下国际贸易隐含碳转移及其溢出网络效应研究”(202310565)。

摘　　要：绿色是共建“一带一路”的鲜明底色。采用环境扩展的多区域投入产出法和联通网络模型,对全球贸易中的碳泄漏进行估算,并计算了中国发展低碳经济对其他国家的绿色溢出和溢回效应。基于这些分析,进一步应用多时点差分方法,对共建“一带一路”的绿色政策效应进行评估。结果表明,共建“一带一路”显著降低了共建国家(地区)进出口贸易中隐含的碳泄漏强度,加强了中国对共建国家(地区)的绿色溢出效应。同时,中国也从这些国家(地区)接收到了更多的绿色溢回效应。这些绿色效应在沿陆上丝绸之路经济带、欧亚非区域以及“五通”程度较高的国家(地区)中表现得更加明显。此外,机制检验结果表明,绿色效应主要通过绿色技术的水平溢出和全球价值链分工的垂直溢出两个渠道实现。The Green Silk Road is the top priority of the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper employs the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output method(EE-MRIO) to measure carbon leakage through international trade channels, and constructs a Connectedness Network model of carbon leakage to identify the low-carbon economy's green spillover and spillback effects of China upon other countries. Further, this paper utilizes a time-varing difference test to effectively evaluate and analyze the Belt and Road Initiative's green policy impact. Main findings are as follows: Firstly,the the Belt and Road Initiative significantly reduces the carbon leakage intensity embodied in imports and exports of the countries along the route;Secondly, the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly strengthened China's green spillover effects on the countries along the route, simultaneously, China also receive stronger green spillback effect from them. These effects can be observed in countries along the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt, in European, African and Asian regions and those with higher scores of the "Five Links" index. Furthermore, the mechanism test results show that the green effect of the Belt and Road Initiative can be generated through two channels: horizontal spillover of green technology and vertical spillover of global value chain division.

关 键 词：共建“一带一路” 绿色“一带一路” 贸易隐含碳泄漏 联通网络 多时点差分 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F731[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]