近60a柴达木盆地农业热量资源在气温突变前后的时空对比  

Temporal and Spatial Comparison of Agricultural Heat Resources Before and After Temperature Abrupt Change in Qaidam Basin in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：陈宏松 戴广婷 张国玲 祁栋林[5] 李兴 Chen Hongsong;Dai Guangting;Zhang Guoling;Qi Donglin;Li Xing(Golmud Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Golmud 816099,China;Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Xining 810001,China;Dulan Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Dulan 816100,China;Huangnan Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Tongren 811399,China;Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Xining 810001,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省格尔木市气象局,格尔木816099 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,西宁810001 [3]青海省都兰县气象局,都兰816100 [4]青海省黄南州气象局,同仁811399 [5]青海省气象科学研究所,西宁810001

出　　处：《青海科技》2024年第4期117-128,共12页Qinghai Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象科技计划项目(2020YB25)。

摘　　要：利用1961-2020年柴达木盆地的国家地面气象观测站逐日平均气温资料,应用线性趋势、累积距平法、滑动t-检验和Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验等方法开展分析与讨论。结果显示近60 a柴达木盆地年平均气温的突变年份为1997年。突变前后柴达木盆地平均气温均值增大、极值差减小、变异系数减小,说明突变后气温以较高的值趋于平稳增加。前后大于0℃、大于5℃和大于10℃积温均表现为平均值增加、气候倾向率减小、变异系数减小,与平均气温突变前后变化较为一致;气温突变前后大于0℃、大于5℃和大于10℃积温日数变化趋势表现不尽相同。从积温及积温日数与平均气温的相关性可以看出,各要素中大于0℃积温与平均气温在各时段均呈现最强的显著正相关,其次为大于5℃积温、大于0℃积温日数、大于5℃积温日数、大于10℃积温,大于10℃积温日数,大于10℃积温日数在气温突变前与平均气温呈显著的正相关、在气温突变后呈不显著的负相关。柴达木盆地农业热量资源在气温突变年前后气候倾向率的空间分布,大部地区气候倾向率不显著,无论是积温还是积温日数,突变前后大值中心由盆地西部向盆地中东部偏移;选取的7个热量资源要素中有4个要素气候倾向率的绝对值在气温突变后较气温突变前减小。气温突变前后柴达木盆地大部区域平均气温、大于0℃积温、大于5℃积温、大于0℃积温日数、大于5℃积温日数的气候倾向率均为正值;大于10℃积温、大于10℃积温日数在气温突变前后气候倾向率变化特征与其他要素不同。分析结果对于指导柴达木盆地生态特色农业发展规划布局、合理开发和利用热量资源具有重要的参考意义。Based on the daily average temperature data of the National Surface Meteorological Observatory in the Qaidam Basin from 1961 to 2020,the linear trend,cumulative anomaly method,sliding t-test,Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test were used to analyze and discuss.The results showed that the abrupt change in the annual average temperature in the Qaidam Basin in the past 60 years was 1997.Before the abrupt change,the mean average temperature of the Qaidam Basin increased,the extreme difference had decreased,and the coefficient of variation had decreased.After the abrupt change,these trends continued.This indicated that the temperature had been tending to increase steadily with a higher value after the abrupt change.The accumulated temperature of>0℃,>5℃ and>10℃ both before and after the sudden change in temperature showed that the average values had increased,the climate tendency rates had decreased,and the coefficients of variation had decreased,which were consistent with the changes before and after the sudden change of average temperature.The trends of the accumulated temperature days at>0℃,>5℃,and>10℃ had been different before and after the sudden temperature change.From the correlation observed between accumulated temperature and the number of accumulated temperature days with average temperature,it was seen that the accumulated temperature of>0℃ and the average temperature of each element had shown the strongest significant positive correlation in each period.This was followed by the accumulated temperature of>5℃,the number of accumulated temperature days of>0℃,the number of accumulated temperature days of>5°C,and the accumulated temperature of>10℃.The spatial distribution of the climatic inclination rate of agricultural heat resources in the Qaidam Basin before and after the abrupt temperature change years was not significant in most areas.The center of the large value had shifted from the western part of the basin to the central and eastern part of the basin in terms of accumulated temperat

关 键 词：农业 气温 积温 突变 柴达木盆地 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]