气候变化对我国水能、风能和太阳能资源影响评估研究进展  

Research progress on the impacts of climate change on water energy,wind energy and solar energy resources in China

作　　者：翟然 胡圣堃 梁犁丽 陶福禄[3,4] 暮色依薇 王燚成 徐志 李婉 周泓 ZHAI Ran;HU Shengkun;LIANG Lili;TAO Fulu;Muse yiwei;WANG Yicheng;XU Zhi;LI wan;ZHOU Hong(China Three Gorges Corporation,Bejing 101199,China;China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited,Bejing 100022,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Bejing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Bejing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,北京101199 [2]中国能源建设股份有限公司,北京100022 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第5期1029-1040,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(项目编号:WWKY-2021-0357,合同编号:202103584);国家自然科学基金项目(42201050)。

摘　　要：通过对相关文献的研究梳理,归纳常用的水能、风能、太阳能资源评估指标及方法,总结历史时期气候变化对我国水能、风能和太阳能资源的影响以及未来气候变化背景下我国水能、风能、太阳能资源的变化。水能、风能、太阳能资源的评估方法均可归纳为基于观测的评估方法、基于数值模式的评估方法、基于卫星遥感的评估方法及基于再分析资料的评估方法。在未来气候变化背景下,现有研究大多认为未来我国水能资源将会增加,风能及太阳能资源将会减少,而且存在时空异质性,气候变化将影响以水能、风能和太阳能为主的可再生能源的开发利用。为应对气候变化带来的不利影响,未来应加强水能、风能和太阳能资源评估指标体系研究,推动水能、风能、太阳能资源评估基础数据库及通用化资源评估软件系统建设,统筹推进未来气候变化背景下水能、风能、太阳能资源评估及水能、风能、太阳能发电的中长期预报/预测研究。Water,wind,and solar energy are essential components of clean energy.Water energy resources are widely distributed,with mature development and utilization technology and low economic cost,and they have been widely applied and developed around the world.Wind and solar energy resources also have the characteristics of abundant reserves,wide distribution,and no pollution.They have developed rapidly in recent years and become essential directions for the development of renewable energy.Global climate change is one of the problems that has huge influence on the world.Water,wind,and solar energy are directly related to climate variables such as precipitation,temperature,wind speed,and radiation.At present,few studies comprehensively summarize and compare the impacts of climate change on water energy resources,wind energy resources,and solar energy resources in China.The commonly used indicators and evaluation methods for water,wind,and solar energy resources were summarized.It also summarizes the impacts of climate change on these resources in the historical period and their changes under different climate change scenarios in the future across China were also summarized.The main evaluation indicators of water energy resources include theoretical reserves,technical exploitability,economic exploitability,already developed and under development amount,hydropower generation,gross hydropower potential,developed hydropower potential and river runoff.The main evaluation indicators of wind energy resources include average wind speed,wind direction frequency,wind power density,effective hours,turbulence intensity,wind energy content,and technical exploitability.The main evaluation indicators of solar energy resources include abundance,stability,direct ratio,solar radiation,and sunshine duration.In summary,the evaluation of water energy resources,wind energy resources,and solar energy resources could adopt evaluation methods based on observation data,numerical model simulation results,satellite remote sensing products,and reanal

关 键 词：水能资源 风能资源 太阳能资源 可再生能源 资源评估 气候变化 “双碳”目标 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P962[天文地球—自然地理学]