上市公司精准扶贫对分析师预测行为的影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of Precision Poverty Alleviation by Listed Companies on Analyst Predictive Behavior

作　　者：姜婷[1] 彭素[1] JIANG Ting;PENG Su(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing,401331)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《管理现代化》2024年第5期79-87,共9页Modernization of Management

基　　金：重庆市教委科学技术研究一般项目“IPO公司高管持股锁定期后出售行为实证研究”(KJQN201800503);重庆市教委科学技术研究青年项目“数字资本对企业创新行为的影响机理与路径研究”(KJQN202300545)。

摘　　要：本文选取2016-2022年沪深两市非金融上市公司为研究样本,研究精准扶贫参与水平对分析师预测行为的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,精准扶贫参与水平越高,分析师盈余预测乐观偏差越低,预测准确性越高,在控制了内生性后,结论依然成立。作用机制研究发现,精准扶贫提高了财务业绩,改善了信息环境,从而降低分析师盈余预测乐观偏差,提高预测准确性。扩展性研究表明,在非国有企业和机构投资比例低的公司中,精准扶贫对分析师盈余预测乐观偏差的降低作用更大。本文的研究扩展了精准扶贫对资本市场行为影响的相关文献,证实了精准扶贫传递积极信号,改善信息环境,促进业绩提升,提高分析师预测准确性,为引导企业吸取精准扶贫的先进经验,积极履行社会责任,助力乡村振兴,促进共同富裕提供了重要启示。This paper selects non-financial listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2016 to 2022 as research samples to study the impact of precision poverty alleviation participation level on analyst prediction behavior.The results show that the higher the level of participation in precision poverty alleviation,the lower the optimistic bias and higher the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.After controlling for endogeneity,the conclusion still holds.The mechanism test indicates that precision poverty alleviation mainly reduces the optimistic bias of analyst earnings forecasts through two channels:improving financial performance and improving the information environment.Further research also found that in non-state firms and companies with low institution investment ratios,precision poverty alleviation has a greater effect on reducing the optimistic bias of analyst earnings forecasts.This research extends the relevant literature on the impact of precision poverty alleviation on capital market behavior.This article confirms that precision poverty alleviation sends positive signals,improves the information environment,promotes performance improvement,and enhances analyst prediction accuracy.This conclusion provides important insights for guiding enterprises to learn from advanced experience in precision poverty alleviation,actively fulfill social responsibilities,assist in rural revitalization,and promote common prosperity.

关 键 词：精准扶贫 分析师预测 财务绩效 信息环境 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]