基于GM(1,1)模型的山西省R&D经费投入预测研究  

Prediction Research on Shanxi’s R&D Expenditure Input Based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：赵艳艳 李向荣 ZHAO Yanyan;LI Xiangrong(Department of Economic Management,Lyuliang University,Lishi Shanxi 033001,China)

机构地区：[1]吕梁学院经济管理系,山西离石033001

出　　处：《吕梁学院学报》2024年第5期66-70,共5页Journal of Lyuiang University

基　　金：山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2023W180);吕梁市软科学研究项目(2023RKX04)。

摘　　要：采用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以山西省2015-2022年R&D经费投入数据为样本数列,对山西2023-2030年R&D经费投入进行预测。研究发现,山西省R&D经费投入将从2020年的211.1亿元增加至2025年的380.4亿元,年均增长12.5%,与20%的目标值差距较大;2030年,山西省R&D经费投入将达到678亿元,仍处于全国较低水平。据此,就如何提升山西省R&D经费投入规模提出三点对策建议,以期为政府职能部门提供决策参考。Employing the grey GM(1,1)model and taking the R&D expenditure input data of Shanxi province from 2015 to 2022 as the sample series,this study predicts the R&D expenditure input of Shanxi province from 2023 to 2030.It is discovered that the R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province will increase from 21.11 billion yuan in 2020 to 38.04 billion yuan in 2025,with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%,which is considerably different from the target value of 20%.In 2030,the R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province will reach 67.8 billion yuan,still remaining at a relatively low level nationwide.Based on this,three countermeasures and suggestions on improving the scale of R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province are proposed in order to provide decision-making references for government functional departments.

关 键 词：R&D经费投入 GM(1 1)模型 山西省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]