基于组合预测的安徽省物流需求预测分析  

Logistics Demand Forecast Analysis of Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting

作　　者：孟凡齐 陆芬 MENG Fanqi;LU Fen(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;Center for Service Science and Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]武汉科技大学服务科学与工程研究中心,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《物流科技》2024年第21期104-108,共5页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：湖北省教育厅科学技术研究项目“考虑随机学习效应的双渠道供应链战略库存决策研究”(B2020005)。

摘　　要：安徽省是中部大省,是连接长江三角洲和中部省份的重要枢纽,交通业和物流业发展迅速。文章以安徽省物流为切入点,通过货运量与地区生产总值等指标,使用灰色预测法、二次指数平滑法、回归分析预测法和组合预测法分别对安徽省物流需求进行预测。经过比较,最终选取误差最小的组合预测法确定了安徽省未来五年物流需求的预测值,并为安徽省物流发展提出一些建议,以期为安徽省的物流行业以及经济发展提供借鉴。Anhui Province is a large central province,an important hub connecting the Yangtze River Delta and the central provinces,and the transportation and logistics industries have developed rapidly.Taking the logistics of Anhui Province as the starting point,this paper uses the gray forecasting method,quadratic exponential smoothing method,regression analysis forecasting method and combined forecasting method to predict the logistics demand of Anhui Province through indicators such as freight volume and regional GDP.After comparison,the combined forecasting method with the smallest error was finally selected to determine the forecast value of logistics demand in Anhui Province in the next five years,and some suggestions were put forward for the logistics development of Anhui Province,in order to provide reference for the logistics industry and economic development of Anhui Province.

关 键 词：物流需求 灰色预测法 回归分析法 组合预测 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]