黄河流域旅游韧性时空演变及驱动因子分析  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Tourism Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：高原[1] 邢婷婷 马瑛敏 GAO Yuan;XING Ting-ting;MA Ying-min(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第6期124-136,共13页Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目“基于深度学习的黄河流域博物馆旅游时空模型构建与应用”(20BTJ047)。

摘　　要：旅游韧性对旅游业抵御风险冲击,实现高质量发展有着重要意义。本文基于演化韧性视角,从抵御能力、调整与恢复能力、重构与更新能力构建旅游韧性评价体系,基于黄河流域沿黄地级市2013—2022年相关数据,利用熵权TOPSIS法测算观测年间各城市的旅游韧性值。在该旅游韧性测度结果基础上,使用核密度分析、空间相关性分析以及地理探测器揭示不同时期旅游韧性水平的动态变化、空间相关性、区域内部集聚特征与驱动因子。研究发现:①黄河流域旅游韧性在空间上表现出明显的区域异质性,呈现出上游低、中游中、下游高的分布形态;②黄河流域旅游韧性整体水平随时间变化呈现增加趋势,但受疫情冲击,旅游韧性水平有所下降;③黄河流域旅游韧性与地理位置存在显著正向空间相关性,集聚程度呈现先升后降趋势,且存在高韧性和低韧性区域相对集中分布的特征;④驱动因子分析表明,黄河流域旅游韧性时空分异的主要影响因素依次为创新因子、经济因子、社会因子和生态因子,且因子间的交互作用表现出非线性增强和双因子增强效应。Tourism resilience plays a crucial role in enabling the tourism industry to withstand risk shocks and achieve high-quality development.This paper,from the perspective of evolutionary resilience,constructs a tourism resilience evaluation system that focuses on resistance capacity,adjustment and recovery capacity,as well as reconstruction and renewal capacity.Using relevant data from 2013 to 2022 for prefecture-level cities along the Yellow River,the Entropy Weight TOPSIS method is employed to calculate the tourism resilience values for each city during the observation period.Based on these tourism resilience measurements,kernel density analysis,spatial correlation analysis,and the geographical detector method are used to reveal the dynamic changes in tourism resilience levels,spatial correlations,internal regional agglomeration characteristics,and driving factors across different periods.The study finds that:①Tourism resilience in the Yellow River Basin exhibits significant regional heterogeneity,with a distribution pattern of low resilience in the upper reaches,moderate resilience in the middle reaches,and high resilience in the lower reaches;②The overall level of tourism resilience in the Yellow River Basin shows an increasing trend over time,although it declined due to the impact of the pandemic;③There is a significant positive spatial correlation between tourism resilience and geographical location,with the degree of agglomeration initially increasing,then decreasing,and distinct clusters of high and low resilience regions;④The driving factor analysis indicates that the main factors influencing the spatial-temporal differentiation of tourism resilience in the Yellow River Basin are,in order:innovation factors,economic factors,social factors,and ecological factors,with interactions between these factors showing non-linear and bi-factor enhancement effects.

关 键 词：旅游韧性 黄河流域 时空演变 驱动因子 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]