供应链冲击、多元化战略与企业发展韧性——来自中国重大自然灾害的证据  

Supply Chain Shocks,Diversification Strategies and Enterprise Development Resilience:Evidence from China’s Major Natural Disasters

作　　者：魏龙[1] 蔡培民 潘安[2] WEI Long;CAI Pei-min;PAN An(School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology;School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院 [2]中南财经政法大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第9期118-136,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建人类命运共同体进程中国际经济规则重建的理论逻辑及中国的战略选择”(批准号19ZDA054);国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球价值链重构对绿色‘一带一路’建设的影响及对策研究”(批准号22BGJ049)。

摘　　要：如何更好应对供应链不利冲击是当前各界关注的重要命题。本文在借鉴异质性企业跨区域采购模型的基础上引入供应链冲击以进行比较静态分析,从理论上探究企业采购多元化战略应对供应链不利冲击、提升企业韧性的作用机理。进一步地,本文从重大自然灾害引致供应链中断视角,利用全球紧急灾难数据、中国上市公司供应链数据等对上述命题进行实证检验。研究发现,自然灾害冲击具有沿供应链纵向传播的特征,不仅会增加客户企业跨区域采购的边际成本,而且破坏企业基于商业信用的资金链,导致销售收入增长率显著下滑。同时,供应链多元化程度更高的企业具有较高的成本弹性和更多的商业信用支持,受不利冲击的影响较小,表明供应链多元化战略是提升企业发展韧性的有效选择。拓展分析发现,灾害等级、供应商受灾地经济发展水平和人口密度越高,对下游客户的负面冲击越大;对于非国有企业、原材料低库存企业、劳动密集型企业,更需要通过供应链多元化战略提升企业的发展韧性。本文从供应链环节出发,为理解企业发展韧性提供新的视角,也为企业构建“灾害适应型”供应链提供策略启示。Recent years have seen a gradual increase in supply chain disruptions.Major causes not only come from the supply chain ecosystem but also from external sources.The frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters poses a serious threat to the security and stability of enterprise supply chains.Does the risk of natural disasters propagate vertically along the supply chain?Can the diversification of a company’s supply chain mitigate risks and thereby enhance corporate resilience?Answering these questions carries important theoretical value and practical significance.This study first constructs a theoretical model to analyze how supply chain shocks affect firms’cross-regional procurement of intermediate inputs.It then empirically tests the mitigating effect of firms’diversification strategies on adverse supply chain shocks by examining disruptions caused by major natural disasters in suppliers’locations.This study finds that after suppliers are affected by disasters,firms experience a significant decline in sales revenue growth rates due to difficulties in obtaining sufficient intermediate inputs and disruptions to their cash flow based on commercial credit.Firms with diversified supply chains experience a smaller decline in sales revenue growth rates,indicating that diversification strategies are an effective means to cope with adverse supply chain shocks and enhance corporate resilience.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the greater the extent of disaster impact on suppliers,the more adverse the effects on downstream customer firms,with the role of supply chain diversification becoming more pronounced.Non-state-owned enterprises,firms with low inventory of raw materials,and labor-intensive businesses are more in need of leveraging supply chain diversification to mitigate adverse risks.The marginal contributions of this study are as follows.First,it provides a novel perspective on examining firms’supply chain risk in the context of disruptions caused by natural disasters,complementing existing literatur

关 键 词：供应链冲击 自然灾害 供应链多元化 企业发展韧性 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]