火山岩气藏未动用储量评价优选及开发技术界限研究  

Evaluation and optimization of untapped reserves and development technical limits in volcanic gas reservoirs

作　　者：刘刚[1] LIU Gang(Exploration and Development Research Institute of PetroChina Daqing Oilfield Co.,Ltd.,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163712,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《油气井测试》2024年第5期73-78,共6页Well Testing

基　　金：大庆油田有限责任公司科研项目“大庆油田‘十四五’滚动及‘十五五’天然气开发战略研究”(202121KF04)。

摘　　要：为了合理确定火山岩气藏未动用储量区块开发动用次序,给出相应的开发技术政策等问题,采用层次分析方法对未开发储量区块进行了优选排队,确定了12个典型区块的开发动用次序;采用蒙特卡洛法重新估算了典型区块的地质储量,评价后地质储量分险在23%~35%之间,储量分险较高;结合人工智能辅助评价技术对典型区块开展了敏感性分析、自动历史拟合、最优化方法以及不确定分析等研究,给出一种新的开发指标预测方法和界限研究;应用盈亏平衡原理,给出了火山岩气藏未开发储量区块的动用技术界限,单井初期经济极限产量1.92×10^(4) m^(3)/d,经济极限井控地质储量1.57×10^(8) m^(3),经济极限有效厚度11.05 m。为类似火山岩气藏未开发储量评价与开发提供参考依据。To determine the optimal sequence for the development of untapped reserve blocks in volcanic gas reservoirs and to propose appropriate development policies,an analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was employed to prioritize undeveloped reserve blocks,and the development sequence for 12 typical blocks was identified.By using the Monte Carlo method,the geological reserves of these typical blocks were re-estimated,revealing a reserve risk ranging from 23%to 35%,and showing a high reserve uncertainty.Combining artificial intelligence-assisted evaluation techniques,a series of studies,including sensitivity analysis,automatic history matching,optimization methods,and uncertainty analysis,were performed on these blocks,which provide a novel approach for forecasting development indicators and studying technical limits.By applying the break-even principle,the technical development limits for untapped reserve blocks in volcanic gas reservoirs were defined,with an initial economic production rate per well of 19200 m^(3)/day,an economic ultimate well-controlled geological reserves of 157 million m^(3),and an economic effective thickness of 11.05 m.This research provides a reference for evaluating and developing untapped reserves in similar volcanic gas reservoirs.

关 键 词：火山岩气藏 动用储量 技术界限 人工智能 层次分析 地质储量 蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：TE371[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]