基于随机森林回归的左转信号损失时间预测模型  

Lost Time Prediction Modelof Left-turn Signal Based on Random Forest Regression

作　　者：肖崇辉 明扬[1] Xiao Chonghui;Ming Yang(Department of Civil Engineering,Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang 330063,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学土木与交通学院,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《市政技术》2024年第11期99-104,共6页Journal of Municipal Technology

摘　　要：左转信号损失时间是确定信号控制周期的重要参数,为准确预测左转信号损失时间从而优化信号控制方案,从交叉口整体环境、驾驶员行为、车流特性3个方面对左转信号损失时间进行影响因素分析。采用定性和定量的方法对南昌市红谷滩区不同交叉口进行数据采集,通过分析各影响因素对左转信号损失时间的影响,构建了随机森林回归、多元线性回归、广义线性混合3种不同的左转信号损失时间预测模型并进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:随机森林回归模型对左转信号损失时间的预测精度比传统线性模型更高,其决定系数为0.812 9;第一辆车反应时间是影响左转信号损失时间预测最重要的因素(重要性得分为14.5),其次为左转组织方式、红灯时间、对向停止线距离,重要性得分分别为2.88、2.84、2.23;左转信号损失时间的长短受启动损失时间的影响较大。Left-turn signal loss time is an important parameter for determining the signal control cycle.In order to accurately predict the left-turn signal loss time and optimize the signal control scheme,the left-turn signal loss time was analyzed in terms of influencing factors from the overall environment of the intersection,driver behavior,and traffic flow characteristics.Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to collect data from different intersections in Honggutan District,Nanchang City.Three different left-turn signal loss time prediction models of random forest regression,multiple linear regression and generalized linear mixed were constructed and analyzed by analyzing the influence of each influencing factor on the left-turn signal loss time.The results show that the predict accuracy of the left-turn signal loss time by random forest regression model was higher than that by the traditional linear model,with a coefficient of determination of 0.812 9;The reaction time of the first vehicle was the most important factor influencing the prediction of the left-turn signal loss time(with an importance score of 14.5),followed by the way of organizing the left-turn,the time of the red light,and the distance of the opposite stop line,with importance scores of2.88,2.84,and 2.23 respectively;The left-turn signal loss time was strongly influenced by start-up loss time.

关 键 词：信号控制交叉口 左转交通流 随机森林回归模型 左转信号损失时间 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]