我国省级经济周期波动的同步性研究  

Analysis of Synchronicity of Provincial Business Cycle in China

作　　者：朱文洁 陈磊[1,2] 徐聿枫 ZHU Wen-jie;CHEN Lei;XU Yu-feng(School of Economics,DongBei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning,China;Econometric Analysis and Forecasting Research Center,DongBei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第11期67-83,共17页China Business and Market

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点建设学科项目“宏观经济监测预测前沿方法及其应用研究”(L22ZD054)。

摘　　要：省级经济周期波动研究对促进区域协同发展、维持经济的可持续发展和助力经济高质量发展具有重要意义。将实际GDP增长率视为经济周期波动,基于时变相关系数测算我国2005—2023年31个省份的经济周期波动同步性,分析其时变特征,借助时变一致度指数和FMM聚类,从周期阶段视角深入探究周期波动同步性的变动原因,并分析不同宏观经济因素对经济周期波动同步性的影响。研究发现:第一,在样本期内,我国省级经济周期波动的同步性呈现出先上升,再下降,然后再上升,最后趋于稳定的趋势变化。其中,2011年2季度至2019年4季度的经济周期波动同步性经历了初期缓慢、中期加速、后期稳定的阶段性下滑;2020年后,经济周期波动同步性快速提升,并在较高水平上保持稳定。在多个时间段,存在与其他省份经济周期波动同步性有较大差异的关键省份。产业结构异质性可能是这些差异出现的主要原因。第二,在同步性下降阶段,各省份周期阶段的时间错位程度有所增加,但形态特征差异才是下滑的主要因素。以各省份平均周期阶段形态特征为依据,通过聚类分析,除湖北因新冠疫情影响被单独划分为一类外,其余省份被划分为短周期低波动和长周期高波动两类。前者所含省份普遍有相对更强的经济韧性或更多元的产业布局,后者所含省份通常受全球经济发展态势影响较大或产业结构布局相对单一。属于同一类别的省份并无显著的地域特征。第三,实证研究表明,地理距离的拉近并不能显著提升各省份的经济周期波动同步性。放松地域限制后,属于同一周期阶段形态特征类别的省份经济周期波动同步性更高。经济规模、收入差距、产业结构相似度、物价水平差异、财政政策差异和对外贸易差异均会对经济周期波动的同步性产生影响。但在同步性的上升、下降和稳定阶段The study of provincial business cycles is of great significance for promoting coordinated regional development,maintaining sustainable economic growth,and supporting high-quality economic development.The authors regard the actual GDP growth rate as an indicator of business cyclical fluctuation,measure the synchronicity of business cyclical fluctuation across 31 provinces from 2005 to 2023 based on the time-varying correlation coefficient,analyze its time-varying characteristics.Additionally,they apply the time-varying degree of concordance and Finite Mixture Model(FMM)to deeply explore the reasons behind the changes in the synchronicity from the perspective of cycle phases,and analyze the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the synchronicity.It is found that,first,during the sample period,the synchronicity of provincial business cyclical fluctuation in China has shown a trend of first rising,then falling,then rising again,and finally stabilizing;among them,the synchronicity of business cyclical fluctuation from the second quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2019 experienced a gradual decline in the early stage,accelerated in the middle stage,and stabilized in the later stage;after 2020,the synchronicity of business cyclical fluctuation rapidly increased and has been maintained at a high level;during multiple time periods,there are key provinces with significant differences in the synchronicity of business cyclical fluctuation compared to other provinces;and industrial structure heterogeneity may be the main reason for these differences.Second,during the decline phase of synchronicity,the degree of temporal displacement among the cyclical phases of various provinces has increased,but the differences in the shapes of business cycles were the primary contributors to the decline;based on the average cycle phase morphological characteristics,Hubei is classified as a separate category due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,and the remaining provinces are divided into two categories,namely the"short cyc

关 键 词：经济周期同步性 时变相关系数 时变一致度指数 有限混合聚类模型 

分 类 号：F279.33[经济管理—企业管理]