基于GM(1,1)模型的保定市居民医保基金收支预测研究  

Prediction of income and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：王凤霞 WANG Fengxia(Basic Medical Insurance Service Center for Urban and Rural Residents in Lianchi District,Baoding,Hebei 071000,Chin)

机构地区：[1]保定市莲池区城乡居民基本医疗保险服务中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2024年第10期736-741,共6页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

摘　　要：目的预测2023—2027年保定市居民医保基金运行状况,分析保定市居民医保基金运行存在的问题,并为医保基金安全运行和可持续发展提供参考建议。方法基于2015—2022年保定市居民医保基金收支数据,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)推断保定市2023—2027年居民医保基金的发展变化趋势。结果2023—2027年保定市居民医保基金可支撑能力不断提高,基金收支具有可持续性,基金结余不断增加。结论保定市居民医保基金运行持续向好,但需警惕医保基金结余过多、利用率不足和待遇水平不高的问题,从而确保基金的可持续发展。Objective To predict the operation status of the basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City from 2023 to 2027,to analyze the problems in the operation,and to provide reference and suggestions for the safe operation and sustainable development of the fund.Methods Based on the income and expenditure data of the basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City from 2015 to 2022,the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to infer the development trend of the fund from 2023 to 2027.Results From 2023 to 2027,the supporting capacity of the urban and rural medical insurance fund in Baoding City would continue to improve,the fund's income and expenditure would be sustainable,and the fund balance would continue to increase.Conclusion The basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City continues to operate well,but it is necessary to be vigilant about the problems of excessive surplus,insufficient utilization rate,and low benefit level of the basic medical insurance fund,in order to ensure the sustainable development of the fund.

关 键 词：保定市 城乡居民基本医疗保险 GM(1 1)模型 医保基金收支 基金监管 待遇保障 风险评估与预警机制 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]