基于AHP-DEMATEL-ISM的航司安全风险因素研究  

Research on Risk Factors of Airline Safety Based on AHP-DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：罗凤娥[1] 杨思瀚 卫昌波 徐勇 LUO Feng'e;YANG Sihan;WEI Changbo;XU Yong(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618300)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院,广汉618300

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2024年第9期105-111,共7页Ship Electronic Engineering

基　　金：中国民航局科技项目(编号:0252108)资助。

摘　　要：为评估影响航空公司安全影响因素,文章构建了航空公司安全风险因素指标体系,采用AHP、DEMATEL和ISM的组合模型对从三家航空公司收集的数据进行分析。首先利用AHP和DEMATEL得出综合权重,确定各因素的重要程度;再通过DEMATEL得到各因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度,对其因果属性进行分析;然后利用ISM方法对各因素进行层级划分,确定其致因水平。结果表明,四类宏观因素中的人的因素和管理因素对航空公司安全影响最为显著。最后,从多个现实角度出发,为航空公司降低安全风险、提升安全水平提出多条政策建议,可供航空公司参考采纳。In order to evaluate the factors affecting airline safety,the article constructs an airline safety risk factor index system,and analyzes the data collected from three airlines using a combination model of AHP,DEMATEL and ISM.Firstly,AHP and DEMATEL are used to derive comprehensive weights to determine the importance of each factor.Then DEMATEL is used to obtain the influence degree,influenced degree,centrality degree and cause degree of each factor to analyze its causal attributes.Then ISM method is used to classify each factor in a hierarchy to determine its causal level.The results show that human factors and management factors among the four categories of macro factors have the most significant impact on airline safety.Finally,from several realistic perspectives,several policy recommendations are proposed for airlines to reduce safety risks and improve safety levels,which can be adopted by airlines for reference.

关 键 词：航空公司 安全风险 层次分析法 决策试验和评价试验法 解释结构模型法 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程] X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]