基于空间视角的交通运输规模对交通碳排放的影响路径  

Mechanism of Transportation Capacity Influence on Carbon Emission of Transportation Sector at China Provincial Scale from a Spatial Perspectiv

作　　者：李云燕 张雪莹 LI Yun-yan;ZHANG Xue-ying(College of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第11期6392-6402,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重点项目(19YJA002);国家社会科学基金后期项目(21FJYB023);2022年北京工业大学服务首都重大战略决策咨询项目(重点)(011000514122545)。

摘　　要：交通运输部门碳排放(TCE)是中国碳排放的重要部分,其减排路径能为国家总体碳减排决策提供建议.在此背景下,如何通过科学方法研究交通运输规模对TCE的影响成为响应国家“双碳”战略的重要工作.基于2010~2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,在考虑相关性和异质性的基础上,将动态空间杜宾模型(SDM)纳入链式中介效应模型,实证分析了交通运输规模对中国TCE的影响路径及其空间异质性.结果发现:①从时序角度看,中国的TCE在地区间存在着愈加明显的空间相关性.②交通运输规模扩大对当地交通部门的碳减排有积极影响,其影响程度有波动但负值不小于-1.212%,一个地区的交通运输规模与TCE可能存在倒U型的EKC关系.③交通运输规模通过经济扩张来降低TCE,系数为0.204%,但其引起的交通部门投资水平上升则呈相反的结果.④交通运输规模对中国不同地区的TCE影响差异较大.华北与中部显著为负,中部与全国水平一致.研究结果可为各地区制定差别化政策和实现“双碳”目标提供参考。Transportation carbon emissions(TCE)are a major contributor to emissions,and their emission reduction pathway can provide recommendations for the overall carbon emission reduction decision-making.Therefore,identifying the impact mechanism of transportation capacity on TCE through scientific methods has become an important foundation to respond to the national“dual-carbon”strategy.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021,a dynamic spatial dubin model(SDM)was included to empirically analyze the dynamic spatial spillover effects of transportation capacity on carbon emissions from Chinas transportation sector,taking correlation and heterogeneity into account.The results were as follows:①There was regional spatial correlation in carbon emissions from Chinas transportation sector,and this situation was becoming increasingly evident in time series.②Transportation capacity had a positive impact on the carbon emission reduction of the local transport sector,which fluctuated,but the negative value was not less than-1.212%.There may have been an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between the transportation capacity and the carbon emissions of the transport sector in a region.③Transportation capacity reduced TCE through economic level with a coefficient of 0.204%,but the opposite result was observed for the level of investment in the transportation sector.④The effect of transportation capacity on carbon emissions varied widely in different regions of China.Those of North and Central were significantly negative,and that of Central was consistent with the national level.The research results can provide reference to formulate differentiated policies for different regions and achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

关 键 词：交通碳排放 莫兰指数 SDM模型 空间溢出效应 链式中介效应 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]