全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀的影响研究  

Study on Impact of Global Supply Chain Bottleneck on China’s Inflation

作　　者：杨晨红 徐泽群 Yang Chenhong;Xu Zequn(China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310000)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第21期159-163,共5页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：在全球范围内通货膨胀问题不断凸显的大背景下,为了更好了解全球供应链瓶颈下的中国通货膨胀风险,本文以外汇储备、经济增长、消费者信心指数、国际原油价格作为控制变量,建立VAR实证模型,根据脉冲响应函数剖析全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀的影响并把握其潜在风险。研究发现:全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀存在正向影响。基于此,本文提出以下政策建议:优化供应链网络、提高可见性和预测能力、加强协同合作以及推动创新和效率提升,以期更加有效地管理和运营供应链,减轻对通货膨胀的压力。In the context of rising inflation worldwide,in order to better understand China’s inflation risk under the bottleneck of the global supply chain,the VAR empirical model is established with foreign exchange reserves,economic growth,consumer confidence index and international crude oil price as control variables.According to impulse response function,the paper analyzes the impact of the global supply chain bottleneck on China’s inflation and grasps its potential risk.It is found that the global supply chain bottleneck has a positive impact on China’s inflation.Based on the empirical analysis,the following policy recommendations are made:to optimize the supply chain network,improve visibility and forecasting capacity,strengthen synergies and promote innovation and efficiency,so as to manage and operate the supply chain more effectively and reduce inflationary pressures.

关 键 词：全球供应链 通货膨胀 VAR模型 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F279.23[经济管理—企业管理]