基于组合赋权及区间逼近的装配式建筑施工风险评价  

Risk assessment of prefabricated buildings based on combination weighting and interval approximation construction

作　　者：廖俊文 蒋贤勇 刘京铄[1] LIAO Junwen;JIANG Xianyong;LIU Jingshuo(School of Architecture and Engineering,Hunan Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Power,Changsha 410131,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南水利水电职业技术学院建筑工程学院,湖南长沙410131

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2024年第10期4311-4320,共10页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42277175);湖南省优秀青年项目(23B1010)。

摘　　要：为了准确评估装配式建筑的施工风险,以更好地帮助施工企业防范风险,提高装配式建筑施工的安全性,装配式建筑施工时一般为建筑群施工的模式,施工风险评价指标为区间数。采用科学且符合装配式建筑工程实际的分析评价方法对装配式建筑施工风险进行分析评价。从人员、材料设备及管理等5个方面选取21项指标构建装配式建筑风险评价多级指标体系。以此为基础,联合组合赋权和区间逼近理论建立装配式建筑施工风险分析评价模型。首先综合主观经验和客观信息2个方面对指标权重进行准确计算,以GI理论计算风险评价指标主观权重,以熵权理论计算风险评价指标客观权重,对主客观权重组合赋权得到综合权重。然后分析装配式建筑风险评价指标数据具有区间波动特征,采用区间逼近理论对装配式建筑施工风险评价指标数据进行了区间数表征和分析,对装配式建筑施工风险进行了综合分析并确定其风险等级。应用该模型对岳阳市一批装配式建筑群的施工风险进行分析评价,案例中的5个装配式建筑群中4个施工风险较低,1个施工风险中等,据此对各装配式建筑群拟定了针对性的风险防范措施。实践证明GI-熵权组合赋权联合区间逼近理论可以科学计算风险评价指标权重,并对装配式建筑施工风险做出符合实际的分析评价,进而为有效防范装配式建筑施工风险提供指导。To accurately evaluate the construction risks of prefabricated buildings and better assist construction enterprises in preventing risks and improving the safety of prefabricated building construction,the construction mode of prefabricated buildings was analyzed that the enterprise generally constructs several buildings,and that the construction risk evaluation index is interval number.Scientific and practical analysis and evaluation methods were adopted to analyze and evaluate the construction risks of prefabricated buildings that are in line with the actual situation of prefabricated building engineering.21 indicators were selected from 5 aspects,including personnel,materials,equipment,and management,to construct a multi-level indicator system for risk assessment of prefabricated buildings.Based on this,a risk analysis and evaluation model for prefabricated building construction was established by combining combination weighting and interval approximation theory.First,the weight of the indicators was accurately calculated by integrating subjective experience and objective information.The subjective weight of the risk evaluation indicators was calculated by GI theory,and the objective weight of the risk evaluation indicators was calculated by entropy weight theory.The combination of subjective and objective weights was weighted to obtain a comprehensive weight.Then,the risk assessment index data of prefabricated buildings were analyzed to yield interval fluctuation characteristics.The interval approximation theory was used to characterize and analyze the interval number of the risk assessment index data of prefabricated building construction.A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the risk of prefabricated building construction and its risk level was determined.This model was applied to analyze and evaluate the construction risks of a batch of prefabricated building clusters in Yueyang city,Hunan,China.It was found that out of the 5 prefabricated building clusters in the selected case study,four were of lower c

关 键 词：装配式建筑 施工风险 GI 熵权 区间逼近 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]