基于全球实证证据的气温对全要素能源效率的影响  

The impact of temperature on the total factor energy efficiency:empirical evidence from a global analysis

作　　者：张红亮 吴杰 赵临轩 吴健[1] ZHANG Hong-liang;WU Jie;ZHAO Lin-xuan;WU Jian(School of Ecology and Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学生态环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第11期6504-6512,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72103198);中国人民大学科学研究基金资助(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(22XNF017)。

摘　　要：本文采用随机前沿分析方法测算全球国家级全要素能源效率,通过构建面板固定效应模型评估气温这一关键环境因素对全要素能源效率在国家层面的影响,并根据估计结果预测了未来全球变暖对各国能源效率的影响.研究发现,国家间的气温和全要素能源效率存在倒U型关系,且该关系受收入水平的影响,贫穷国家的能源效率受到气温的影响大于富裕国家.每年日平均温度高于30℃的天数增加1d,各国全要素能源效率平均降低0.161,而每年日平均温度低于0℃的天数增加1d,各国全要素能源效率平均降低0.176.预测结果显示,21世纪末全球变暖将导致世界平均能源效率下降,且赤道附近的国家将受到更为严重的影响.在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两个升温情景下,气候变化引致的气温上升将导致世界平均能源效率相较于1995~2005年的水平下降0.76%和2.76%.This study employs a stochastic frontier analysis to measure the total factor energy efficiency at the national level across the globe,utilizes a two-way fixed effects model to evaluate the influence of temperature,a critical environmental factor,on the total factor energy efficiency,and projects the impact of future global warming on energy efficiency in different countries.The study finds an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and the total factor energy efficiency among nations,which is influenced by income levels.Energy efficiency in poorer countries is more affected by temperature compared to wealthier nations.Specifically,an additional day with an average temperature above 30℃annually is associated with an average reduction of 0.161in total factor energy efficiency,while an additional day with an average temperature below 0℃leads to an average decline of 0.176.Prediction results indicate that global warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to a decline in world average energy efficiency,with countries near the equator experiencing more severe impacts.Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 warming scenarios,the temperature increase induced by climate change will reduce the world's average energy efficiency by 0.76%and 2.76%compared to levels from 1995 to 2005.

关 键 词：气温 气候变化 随机前沿分析 能源效率 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]