DEMATEL和模糊认知图在地铁深基坑施工安全风险动态评估中的应用  

Application of DEMATEL and Fuzzy Cognitive Map in dynamic assessment of safety risk in subway deep foundation pit construction

作　　者：王乾坤[1,2] 朱科[1,2] 郭佩文 WANG Qiankun;ZHU Ke;GUO Peiwen(Science Education Innovation Park,Wuhan University of Technology,Sanya 572000,Hainan,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Real Estate and Management Science,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园,海南三亚572000 [2]武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430070 [3]重庆大学房地产与管理科学学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第11期4143-4153,共11页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ2021024);三亚崖州湾科技城海南专项博士研究生科学研究基金项目(HSPHDSRF-2022-03-001)。

摘　　要：为探究地铁深基坑施工安全风险因素动态作用规律,科学预防施工安全事故,针对目前缺乏因素系统识别、因果关系量化和动态推理分析等共性问题,提出一种基于决策试验和评估实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory DEMATEL)与模糊认知图(Fuzzy Cognitive Map,FCM)的地铁深基坑施工安全风险分析方法。首先,通过理论分析与文献梳理,采用扎根理论识别风险因素;其次,结合专家调研与量化分析,利用DEMATEL方法分析风险因素的因果关系;再次,将DEMATAL决策矩阵转化为FCM模型的交互作用矩阵,展开风险因素的预测与诊断推理分析;最后,选取案例进行实证,验证模型方法的可用性与有效性。结果显示:因素X_(1)(人员安全风险意识)对其他因素的影响程度最高;因素X_(1)(人员安全风险意识)、X_(8)(安全施工组织设计方案)和X_(7)(施工安全风险管理措施)是排名前3的关键风险因素;完善安全施工组织设计方案是最有效的管控对策。To systematically understand the dynamic influences of safety risk factors during subway deep foundation pit construction and scientifically mitigate related safety accidents,this study introduces a novel dynamic analysis method.This method synthesizes the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)and the Fuzzy Cognitive Map(FCM)to address the common gaps in the existing literature,such as the lack of comprehensive risk factor identification,causal relationship quantification,and dynamic reasoning analysis.The research begins with a careful theoretical analysis and extensive literature review using the open,axial,and selective coding procedures of grounded theory.These processes result in the construction of a comprehensive index system for identifying the influencing factors that affect safety risks in subway deep foundation pit construction.The system includes four core categories:human factors,management factors,environmental factors,and equipment factors.This is followed by an expert survey coupled with quantitative analysis using the DEMATEL method to unpack the causal relationships between the risk factors.Key risk factors are then identified using a threshold function.The DEMATEL decision matrix is then transformed into an interaction matrix in the FCM model,which allows the predictive and diagnostic reasoning analysis of the key risk factors.In the final phase of the research,a case study is selected for empirical testing.The research also uses a proven and reliable combination model,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)-Grey Relational Analysis(GRA),to compare and contrast the results.This comprehensive approach serves to validate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed dynamic analysis method.The study contributes to a broader understanding of the safety of subway deep foundation pit construction and provides valuable insights for risk management practices in this field.The results highlight that factor X 1(personnel safety risk awareness)has the highest influence among the other

关 键 词：安全工程 地铁深基坑 施工安全风险 决策试验和评估实验室(DEMATEL) 模糊认知图(FCM) 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]