洪洼洪泛区溃堤洪水与漫溢洪水联合演进数值模拟  

Numerical simulation of flood routing for dike-breach and overflow floods in Hongwa flood plain

作　　者：陈小凤 胡勇 章启兵 CHEN Xiaofeng;HU Yong;ZANG Qibing(Anhui Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Hefei 230000,China;Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Science and Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,合肥230000 [2]安徽省水科学与智慧水利重点实验室,合肥230000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第11期4401-4409,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US16);安徽省水科院科技攻关计划项目(KJGG202202);安徽省引江济淮集团有限公司科技项目(YJJH-ZT-ZX-20230706545)。

摘　　要：河道溃堤洪水与漫溢洪水是两种典型的洪水灾害,准确模拟这两类洪水的联合演进过程至关重要。为准确获取超标准洪水条件下溃堤洪水和漫溢洪水的联合演进情况,以淮河流域典型洪泛区为研究区域,结合河道形态、下垫面条件、工程调度等情况,综合确定网格大小、空间步长与时间步长等。采用MIKE11构建一维河网模型,采用MIKE21构建洪洼洪泛区二维水动力学模型,采用MIKE FLOOD构建一维、二维耦合模型,分别采用标准连接、侧向连接耦合溃堤洪水与漫溢洪水。采用2003年、2007年典型洪水过程对一维模型的参数进行率定和验证,模拟水位过程与实测水位过程拟合较好,纳什效率系数均大于0.80,水位峰值模拟值与实测值偏差小于5%,构建的模型能够同时模拟溃堤、漫溢洪水演进过程。在100 a一遇、300 a一遇超标准洪水与不同防洪薄弱堤段组合情景条件下,开展典型溃堤、漫溢场景的洪水联合演进过程模拟。模拟结果表明,100 a一遇、300 a一遇超标准洪水淹没范围分别为121.50 km^(2)、149.87 km^(2),平均最大淹没水深分别为2.33 m、2.90 m,洪水演进及淹没情况符合区域地形地物等实际情况。研究成果可为区域洪水预案编制、灾害预警、决策制定、避洪转移等提供依据,也可为同类型研究工作提供借鉴。Accurately simulating both types of flood routing is crucial yet challenging.To achieve reliable routing for dike-break and overflow floods,this research is conducted in a typical flood-prone area of the Huaihe River.One-dimensional river network models are developed using MIKE11,while a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Hongwa flood plain is constructed utilizing MIKE21.Standard and lateral connections are employed to model the coupled dike-breach and overflow scenarios using MIKE FLOOD.The grid size,spatial step size,and time step size are determined based on factors such as river channel morphology,underlying surface conditions,and engineering schedules.The determination and verification of parameters are validated using the flood events of 2003 and 2007.The simulated water level trends closely align with the actual measurements,achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.80,while the deviation between the simulated peak water level and the measured level is less than 5%.The model can then be employed to simulate the flood routing for both dike-breach and overflow floods.The over-standard flood hydrograph is derived from the 1954 flood event,and the amplification factor is calculated based on a flood volume over a period of 30 days.The Rengang dike-breach is situated at Dahonghe,while the Sanliyuan dike-breach is located along the Honghe Flood-Way.The study involves four river sections.Flood routing is simulated under typical dike-break and overflow scenarios,considering a combination of 100-year and 300-year events,as well as various weak flood control sections.The simulation results indicate that the maximum inundation areas for the two scenarios are 121.50 km^(2)and 149.87 km^(2),with average maximum submergence depths of 2.33 m and 2.90 m,respectively.The flood evolution and inundation patterns correspond closely to the actual regional terrain and land features.The research findings offer a scientific basis for developing regional flood plans,disaster warnings,decision-making,and flood pre

关 键 词：公共安全 溃堤洪水 漫溢洪水 超标准洪水 洪水演进模拟 洪洼洪泛区 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]