环渤海地区废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放模拟研究  

A Simulation Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Waste Incineration in the Bohai Rim Region

作　　者：李华圣 严薇 刘舒乐 高文康[3] 高庆先[1] 马占云[1] 朱小燕 赵颖[4] LI Huasheng;YAN Wei;LIU Shule;GAO Wenkang;GAO Qingxian;MA Zhanyun;ZHU Xiaoyan;ZHAO Ying(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Institute for Environmental and Climate Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511443,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100191,China;Water Environmental Research Institute,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Being 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]暨南大学环境与气候研究院,广东广州511443 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100191 [4]中国环境科学研究院水生态环境研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第11期2434-2443,共10页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2019YFC1903901);废弃物处理温室气体清单编制(No.2023-地方科研-0819)。

摘　　要：为了分析未来环渤海地区废弃物焚烧处理过程中的温室气体排放情况,并积极推动温室气体减排工作,基于系统动力学和IPCC温室气体排放计算方法构建了环渤海地区废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放模型,以2016-2020年温室气体排放量为基础,在源头、中端和末端分别设立减排情景,预测2020-2050年环渤海地区温室气体排放量(以CO_(2)当量计)的趋势变化,分析减排潜力以及排放分布差异。结果表明:①2016-2020年河北省、辽宁省和天津市废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放均呈增长趋势,而山东省因危险废弃物的产生量激增,导致其排放量经历了先增后降再增的波动。受此影响,环渤海地区焚烧处理温室气体排放量呈现先上升后下降的趋势,并在2020年再次出现增长。②2020-2050年,源头减排情景和中端减排情景的温室气体排444放量均于2030年达到峰值(分别为6288.22×10^(4)和4867.90×10^(4) t),到2050年二者的累积减排量分别为19656.59×10^(4)和427477.60×10^(4) t,通过政策支持提升垃圾分类比例、推动发展大规模焚烧发电产业园区、提高入炉垃圾的热值来提升焚烧效率,4可以进一步增加两种情景下的减排潜力。末端减排情景的温室气体排放量于2025年达到峰值4392.73×10^(4) t,到2050年积累减4排量为34858.82×10^(4) t,减排潜力最大,可通过发展高参数焚烧发电技术以及加强发电余热利用实现热电联产来提高焚烧发电效率,进一步增加末端减排情景的减排潜力。③环渤海地区焚烧处理温室气体排放量区域差异显著,与区域GDP、人口和面积等参数均呈正相关。研究显示,提升焚烧发电效率能大幅降低温室气体排放,建议加强联防联控,区域内共同建设大型垃圾焚烧产业园区,提升焚烧发电效率并促进区域内平衡和协调发展,减少废弃物焚烧处理过程中的温室气体排放,为我国实现碳达峰碳中和的目标提供参考This study focuses on analyzing future greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from waste incineration in the Bohai Rim region and promoting efforts to reduce these emissions.A GHG emission model was developed using system dynamics and the IPCC′s emission calculation methods,based on data from 2016 to 2020.Emission reduction scenarios were created for the source,midstream,and downstream stages to project trends in GHG emissions,measured in CO_(2) equivalents,from 2020 to 2050.The study also assessed the potential for emission reductions and regional disparities in emission distribution.The results indicate that:(1)From 2016 to 2020,GHG emissions from waste incineration increased in Hebei Province,Liaoning Province,and Tianjin City.Shandong Province,however,the emissions fluctuated due to a surge in hazardous waste generation,first increasing,then decreasing,and rising again.As a result,the Bohai Rim region experienced an initial rise followed by a decline in GHG emissions from waste incineration,with emissions increasing again in 2020.(2)Between 2020 and 2050,under the source reduction and midstream reduction scenarios,GHG emissions are projected to peak in 442030 at 6,288.22×10^(4) t and 4,867.90×10^(4) t,respectively.Enhancing waste classification through policy support,developing large-scale waste-to-energy industrial parks,and improving the calorific value of waste to increase incineration efficiency could further boost the reduction potential in these scenarios.Under the downstream reduction scenario,GHG emissions are expected to peak in 2025 at 444,392.73×10^(4) t,with a cumulative reduction of 34,858.82×10^(4) t by 2050,demonstrating the highest reduction potential.This potential could be further increased by advancing high-parameter waste-to-energy technology,improving the utilization of residual heat from power generation,and implementing combined heat and power(CHP)generation to enhance incineration efficiency.(3)Significant regional disparities in GHG emissions from waste incineration exist across the Bohai

关 键 词：焚烧处理 温室气体排放 排放情景 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]