基于智能体仿真的多模式交通组合出行建模及减碳治理分析  

Integrated Multimodal Transportation Modeling with Agent-based Simulation and Carbon Reduction Governance Analysis

作　　者：单肖年 李琪 张小丽[1] 陈小鸿[2] 叶建红[2] SHAN Xiaonian;LI Qi;ZHANG Xiaoli;CHEN Xiaohong;YE Jianhong(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,南京210098 [2]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《交通与运输》2024年第6期75-81,共7页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52002113);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20242054);同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室开放基金资助(K202302)。

摘　　要：传统交通规划模型以单一交通方式为对象,无法评估现阶段多模式组合出行的系统运行效益。基于BEAM(Behavior,Energy,Autonomy and Mobility)智能体仿真模型,探究居民多模式交通组合出行的动态演化及减碳治理策略的综合效益。结果表明:BEAM模型能够较好地反映居民多模式交通组合出行特征,如慢行-公交多模式交通占比约25.1%,与实际出行方式分担率基本一致。同时,探究多模式交通组合出行次数及出行距离随时间的演化过程,分析多模式交通通勤出行特征。此外,计算模式转移的减碳效益:每降低1%小汽车使用比例,交通碳排放总量可降低7%,人均日碳排放量减少约0.14kg。The traditional transportation planning model,focuses on a single mode of transportation.At this stage,it cannot evaluate the operational benefits of multimodal combined travel within the system.This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of residents'multimodal transportation combination trips and examines the comprehensive benefits of carbon reduction management strategies using the BEAM(Behavior,Energy,Autonomy,and Mobility)simulation model.The results indicate that the BEAM model can more accurately capture the characteristics of residents'multimodal transportation combination trips.For example,the share of slow-transit multimodal transportation accounts for about 25.1%,a distribution that closely aligns with the actual mode share.The study also delved into the evolution of the number of trips and travel distance of multimodal transportation combinations over time,analyzing the commuting characteristics of multimodal transportation.Additionally,the study analyzed the carbon reduction benefits associated with mode shifting.A 1%reduction in the proportion of small car usage corresponds to a 7%reduction in total transportation carbon emissions,leading to a decrease of approximately 0.14 kg in per capita carbon emissions.

关 键 词：城市交通 多模式交通 智能体仿真 组合出行 减碳治理 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]